2024 United States House of Representatives elections in New York
November 5, 2024
All 26 New York seats to the United States House of Representatives
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election 15 11

The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in New York will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the 26 U.S. representatives from the State of New York, one from all 26 of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.

2020–2024 redistricting process

Following the 2020 census, New York lost one congressional seat and its Independent Redistricting Commission (I.R.C.) attempted to draw a new map. However, they could not reach an agreement on the map, and the Democratic-dominated New York State Legislature drew their own new Congressional map. In April 2022, in the lead-up to the 2022 midterms, the New York State Court of Appeals struck down the map as an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander that failed to follow the proper procedures.[1] The Court then assigned an Independent Special Master to create a new map.

In the 2022 House election in New York, under the new map, the Republican Party flipped 3 seats, bringing the new seat count of 15 for the Democrats and 11 held by Republicans.[2] In March 2023, New York Democrats challenged the new map, deeming it incorrect for the Court to draw the map, claiming that the job lies solely with the Legislature and I.R.C.[3] In July 2023, an intermediate appeals court ruled that the I.R.C. must create another new map for the 2024 House Elections.[4] The New York State Republicans challenged the ruling to the Court of Appeals, who ruled on December 12, 2023, that the maps must be redrawn by the legislature and I.R.C. for the 2024 elections.[5][6]

District 1

The 1st district is based on the eastern end and North Shore of Long Island, including the Hamptons, the North Fork, Riverhead, Port Jefferson, Smithtown, and Huntington, all in Suffolk County.[7] The incumbent is Republican Nick LaLota, who was elected with 55.51% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Republican primary

Potential

Endorsements

Nick LaLota (not declared)
U.S. representatives

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Nick LaLota (R) $1,221,917 $298,781 $1,000,698
Source: Federal Election Commission[10]

Democratic primary

Declared

Endorsements

Nancy Goroff
U.S. representatives
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
James Gaughran (D) $126,103 $16,243 $109,859
Craig Herskowitz (D) $106,415[lower-alpha 1] $1,966 $104,449
Source: Federal Election Commission[10]

Conservative primary

Declared

  • Daniel Foti, financial director[18] (previously ran in the 3rd district)[19]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Likely R December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Lean R December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Likely R February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Likely R September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Lean R November 16, 2023

District 2

The 2nd district is based on the South Shore of Suffolk County, including the towns of Babylon, Islip, and most of Brookhaven all in Suffolk County, and a small part of Oyster Bay in Nassau County. The incumbent is Republican Andrew Garbarino, who was re-elected with 60.73% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Republican primary

Potential

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Andrew Garbarino (R) $1,424,459 $509,145 $1,212,396
Source: Federal Election Commission[25]

Democratic primary

Declared

  • Rob Lubin, fashion e-commerce company founder[26]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Rob Lubin (D) $558,224[lower-alpha 2] $168,486 $389,737
Source: Federal Election Commission[25]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid R December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid R December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe R February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Likely R September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Likely R November 16, 2023

District 3

The 3rd district is based on the North Shore of Nassau County, including all of the city of Glen Cove, all of the town of North Hempstead, most of the town of Oyster Bay, a small part of the town of Hempstead, and parts of Northeast Queens, including the neighborhoods of Whitestone, Beechhurst, Little Neck, and Douglaston.[7] The incumbent was Republican George Santos, who flipped the district and was elected with 53.76% of the vote in 2022.[8] Santos had faced heavy calls to resign following revelations that he fabricated a majority of his resumé, including from the Nassau County Republican Party.[27]

On May 10, 2023, Santos was arrested on federal charges of fraud and money laundering.[28]

On November 16, 2023, in light of the House Ethics Committee report finding that there was "substantial evidence" that he "violated federal criminal laws," Santos announced that he would no longer be seeking re-election.[29] On December 1, Santos was expelled from Congress.[30]

Republican primary

Declared

Potential

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Kellen Curry
Federal cabinet officials
U.S. representatives
Mike Sapraicone
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Kellen Curry (R) $349,814[lower-alpha 3] $105,805 $244,008
Greg Hach (R) $219,413[lower-alpha 4] $69,151 $150,262
Thomas Ludwig (R) $7,000[lower-alpha 5] $5,000 $2,000
Daniel Norber (R) $205,087[lower-alpha 6] $88,475 $116,611
George Santos (R)[lower-alpha 7] $150,838 $157,920 $27,826
Mike Sapraicone (R) $551,660[lower-alpha 8] $31,857 $519,802
Jim Toes (R) $46,003 $3,888 $42,115
Source: Federal Election Commission[46]

Democratic primary

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Scott Livingston, investment banker[49]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Tom Suozzi
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Labor unions

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Austin Cheng (D) $611,043[lower-alpha 10] $151,982 $459,060
Anna Kaplan (D)[lower-alpha 7] $788,493[lower-alpha 11] $369,214 $419,278
Josh Lafazan (D)[lower-alpha 7] $573,184 $452,172 $103,415
Scott Livingston (D) $121,955 $33,722 $88,232
Zak Malamed (D)[lower-alpha 7] $721,941 $191,561 $530,379
Will Murphy (D)[lower-alpha 7] $69,342 $48,251 $21,090
Tom Suozzi (D) $507 $5,560 $58,182
Source: Federal Election Commission[46]

Libertarian primary

Declared

  • Ryan Kalata, merchandiser[60]

Conservative primary

Withdrawn

  • Daniel Foti, financial director[19] (running in the 1st district)[18]

Independents

Declared

  • Matt Nappo, multimedia producer and podcaster[60]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Tossup December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Tossup December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Tossup February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Tossup September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Tilt D (flip) November 16, 2023

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Jack Martins vs. Josh Lafazan
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 12]		 Margin
of error		 Jack
Martins (R)		 Josh
Lafazan (D)		 Undecided
Priorities for Progress (D) March 5–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 36% 21%
Jack Martins vs. Robert Zimmerman
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 12]		 Margin
of error		 Jack
Martins (R)		 Robert
Zimmerman (D)		 Undecided
Priorities for Progress (D) March 5–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 41% 15%

District 4

The 4th district is based on the South Shore of Nassau County and is entirely within the town of Hempstead.[7] The incumbent is Republican Anthony D'Esposito, who flipped the district and was elected with 51.80% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Republican primary

Potential

Endorsements

Anthony D'Esposito (not declared)
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Anthony D'Esposito (R) $1,266,973 $357,984 $931,455
Source: Federal Election Commission[62]

Democratic primary

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Patrick Lawrence Henry[68]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Laura Gillen
U.S. representatives
Local officials
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 12]		 Margin
of error		 Laura
Gillen		 Kevin
Thomas		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] October 23–24, 2023 464 (LV) ? 53% 10% 37%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Laura Gillen (D) $373,355 $33,305 $340,030
Sarah Hughes (D)[lower-alpha 7] $110,147 $83,882 $26,264
Gian Jones (D) $6,446 $1,119 $4,326
Patricia Maher (D) $8,051[lower-alpha 13] $6,399 $1,652
Kevin Thomas (D) $210,519 $99,404 $111,114
Source: Federal Election Commission[62]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Tossup December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Tossup December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Tossup February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Tossup September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Tilt D (flip) November 16, 2023

District 5

The 5th district is based in Southeast Queens, including the neighborhoods of Jamaica, Hollis, Laurelton, Richmond Hill, Ozone Park, Howard Beach, and the Rockaways. The incumbent is Democrat Gregory Meeks, who was re-elected with 75.21% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Democratic primary

Potential

Endorsements

Gregory Meeks (not declared)
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Gregory Meeks (D) $869,948 $1,070,242 $1,528,286
Source: Federal Election Commission[79]

General election

Prediction

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid D December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid D December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe D February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe D September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid D November 16, 2023

District 6

The 6th district is based in Central and Eastern Queens, including the neighborhoods of Woodside, Jackson Heights, Elmhurst, Kew Gardens, Flushing, Bayside, and Fresh Meadows. The incumbent is Democrat Grace Meng, who was re-elected with 63.95% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Democratic primary

Declared

Endorsements

Grace Meng
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Grace Meng (D) $489,568 $543,738 $653,655
Source: Federal Election Commission[81]

General election

Prediction

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid D December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid D December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe D February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe D September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid D November 16, 2023

District 7

The 7th district is based in Brooklyn and Queens, including the neighborhoods of Clinton Hill, Williamsburg, Greenpoint, Bushwick, Woodhaven, Maspeth, Sunnyside, and Long Island City. The incumbent is Democrat Nydia Velázquez, who was elected with 80.69% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Democratic primary

Potential

Endorsements

Nydia Velázquez (not declared)
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Nydia Velasquez (D) $198,424 $217,203 $284,471
Source: Federal Election Commission[82]

General election

Prediction

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid D December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid D December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe D February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe D September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid D November 16, 2023

District 8

The incumbent is Democrat Hakeem Jeffries who was re-elected with 71.72% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Democratic primary

Potential

Endorsements

Hakeem Jeffries
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Hakeem Jeffries (D) $7,885,137 $4,376,214 $5,725,148
Source: Federal Election Commission[83]

General election

Prediction

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid D December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid D December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe D February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe D September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid D November 16, 2023

District 9

The incumbent is Democrat Yvette Clarke who was re-elected with 81.52% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Democratic primary

Potential

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Yvette Clarke (D) $258,982 $263,240 $58,446
Source: Federal Election Commission[84]

General election

Prediction

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid D December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid D December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe D February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe D September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid D November 16, 2023

District 10

The 10th district is based in Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn, including the neighborhoods of Park Slope, Windsor Terrace, Gowanus, Brooklyn Heights, Cobble Hill, Red Hook, Sunset Park, the Lower East Side, Greenwich Village, and the Financial District.[7] The incumbent is Democrat Dan Goldman, who was elected with 84.04% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Democratic primary

Potential

Endorsements

Dan Goldman (not declared)
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Dan Goldman (D) $1,412,547 $651,466 $798,418
Source: Federal Election Commission[86]

General election

Prediction

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid D December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid D December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe D February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe D September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid D November 16, 2023

District 11

The incumbent is Republican Nicole Malliotakis who was re-elected with 61.77% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Republican primary

Potential

Endorsements

Nicole Malliotakis
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Nicole Malliotakis (R) $1,063,483 $389,901 $723,899
Source: Federal Election Commission[88]

Democratic primary

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

  • Brittany Ramos DeBarros, community organizer and candidate for this district in 2022[90]
  • Max Rose, former U.S. representative[90]

General election

Prediction

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid R December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid R December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe R February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe R September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid R November 16, 2023

District 12

The 12th district is entirely based in Manhattan, comprising the Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Midtown, Hell's Kitchen, Chelsea, Murray Hill, and Gramercy.[7] The incumbent is Democrat Jerry Nadler, who was re-elected with 81.76% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Democratic primary

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

Endorsements

Jerry Nadler
U.S representatives
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jerry Nadler (D) $490,296 $254,668 $250,351
Source: Federal Election Commission[95]

General election

Prediction

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid D December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid D December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe D February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe D September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid D November 16, 2023

District 13

The 13th district is based in Upper Manhattan and the Northwest Bronx, including the neighborhoods of Harlem, Morningside Heights, Spanish Harlem, Hamilton Heights, Washington Heights, Inwood, Marble Hill, Fordham, Kingsbridge, and Bedford Park. The incumbent is Democrat Adriano Espaillat, who ran unopposed in 2022.[8]

Democratic primary

Potential

Endorsements

Adriano Espaillat (not declared)
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Adriano Espaillat (D) $530,784 $221,575 $407,950
Source: Federal Election Commission[96]

General election

Prediction

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid D December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid D December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe D February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe D September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid D November 16, 2023

District 14

The 14th district is based in North Queens and the East Bronx, including the neighborhoods of Corona, East Elmhurst, Astoria, College Point, Hunts Point, Castle Hill, Throggs Neck, Parkchester, Country Club, Co-Op City, and City Island.[7] The incumbent is Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who was re-elected with 70.72% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Democratic primary

Declared

Endorsements

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) $3,548,397 $3,283,642 $5,416,659
Source: Federal Election Commission[101]

Republican primary

Declared

  • Tina Forte, social media influencer and nominee for this district in 2022[102]

Filed paperwork

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Tina Forte (R) $144,532 $115,053 $34,511
Source: Federal Election Commission[101]

General election

Prediction

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid D December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid D December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe D February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe D September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid D November 16, 2023

District 15

The 15th district is based in the West Bronx, including the neighborhoods of Mott Haven, Melrose, Morrisania, Highbridge, Tremont, West Farms, Belmont, Norwood, Woodlawn Heights, Riverdale, and Spuyten Duyvil. The incumbent is Democrat Ritchie Torres, who was elected with 82.79% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Democratic primary

Potential

Endorsements

Ritchie Torres (not declared)
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Ritchie Torres (D) $1,615,923 $473,602 $5,032,721
Source: Federal Election Commission[106]

General election

Prediction

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid D December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid D December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe D February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe D September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid D November 16, 2023

District 16

The 16th district is based in southern Westchester County, including Yonkers, White Plains, New Rochelle, and Rye. It also includes Wakefield in the Bronx. The incumbent is Democrat Jamaal Bowman, who was elected with 64.30% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Democratic primary

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Jamaal Bowman (not declared)
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions
George Latimer
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Labor unions

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jamaal Bowman (D) $401,225 $301,700 $121,041
Michael Gerald (D)[lower-alpha 7] $38,144 $2,440 $35,703
Source: Federal Election Commission[121]

Republican primary

Declared

  • Madeline Brame, nonprofit founder[122]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Madeline Brame (R) $5,725 $1,275 $4,449
Source: Federal Election Commission[121]

General election

Prediction

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid D December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid D December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe D February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe D September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid D November 16, 2023

District 17

The 17th district is based in the Lower Hudson Valley, including all of Rockland and Putnam Counties, northern Westchester County, and a small part of Dutchess County.[7] The incumbent is Republican Mike Lawler, who flipped the district and was elected with 50.32% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Republican primary

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

William Maloney (declined)
U.S. Cabinet officials
Mike Lawler
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Mike Lawler (R) $2,590,940 $576,767 $2,052,634
Source: Federal Election Commission[128]

Democratic primary

Declared

Potential

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Mondaire Jones
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Organizations
Liz Gereghty (withdrawn)
U.S. representatives
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 12]		 Margin
of error		 Mondaire
Jones		 Liz
Gereghty		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 2] July 14–15, 2023 570 (LV) ± 4.1% 43% 8% 49%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
MaryAnn Carr (D) $12,154 $2,458 $9,695
Liz Gereghty (D)[lower-alpha 7] $581,742[lower-alpha 14] $271,416 $310,326
Mondaire Jones (D) $1,146,249 $370,034 $847,561
Source: Federal Election Commission[128]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Tossup December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Tossup December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Tossup February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Tossup September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Tossup November 16, 2023

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Mike Lawler vs. Mondaire Jones
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 12]		 Margin
of error		 Mike
Lawler (R)		 Mondaire
Jones (D)		 Undecided
EMC Research (D)[upper-alpha 3] May 4–7, 2023 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 50% 48% 3%
Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 12]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
EMC Research (D)[upper-alpha 3] May 4–7, 2023 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 48% 49% 3%

District 18

The 18th district is based in the mid-Hudson Valley, including all of Orange County and most of Dutchess and Ulster Counties.[7] The incumbent is Democrat Pat Ryan, who was re-elected with 50.67% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Democratic primary

Declared

Potential

Endorsements

Pat Ryan
U.S representatives
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Pat Ryan (D) $2,385,633[lower-alpha 15] $742,974 $1,678,369
Source: Federal Election Commission[150]

Republican primary

Declared

Endorsements

Alison Esposito
U.S. representatives

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Lovelynn Gwinn (R) $14,033 $6,240 $7,792
Source: Federal Election Commission[150]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Lean D December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Lean D December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Lean D February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Lean D September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Likely D November 16, 2023
Hypothetical polling
Pat Ryan vs. generic opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 12]		 Margin
of error		 Pat
Ryan (D)		 "Someone
new"		 Undecided
Cygnal (R)[upper-alpha 4] August 1–3, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.89% 36% 42% 22%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 12]		 Margin
of error		 Generic Democrat Generic Republican Undecided
Cygnal (R)[upper-alpha 4] August 1–3, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.89% 43% 43% 14%

District 19

The 19th district stretches from the Upper Hudson Valley across the Catskill Mountains to parts of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, including Hudson, Woodstock, Monticello, Oneonta, Binghamton, and Ithaca. It includes all of Columbia, Greene, Sullivan, Delaware, Chenango, Cortland, Broome, Tioga, and Tompkins counties, and parts of Otsego and Ulster Counties.[7] The incumbent is Republican Marc Molinaro, who flipped the district and was elected with 50.78% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Republican primary

Declared

Endorsements

Marc Molinaro
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Marc Molinaro (R) $1,748,773 $461,856 $1,348,931
Source: Federal Election Commission[156]

Democratic primary

Declared

Endorsements

Josh Riley
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Josh Riley (D) $1,360,824 $371,122 $1,006,728
Source: Federal Election Commission[156]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Tossup December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Tilt R December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Tossup February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Tossup September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Tossup November 16, 2023

District 20

The 20th district is based in the Capital Region, including Albany, Troy, Schenectady, and Saratoga Springs. It includes all of Albany, Schenectady, and Saratoga counties and parts of Rensselaer County.[7] The incumbent is Democrat Paul Tonko, who was re-elected with 55.07% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Democratic primary

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Emmanuel Jorge-Garcia, chemical engineer[161]

Endorsements

Paul Tonko
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Emmanuel Jorge-Garcia (D) $1,050 $638 $711
Paul Tonko (D) $556,325 $675,543 $606,906
Source: Federal Election Commission[163]

General election

Prediction

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid D December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid D December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe D February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe D September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid D November 16, 2023

District 21

The 21st district is based in the North Country and Adirondack Mountains, including Glens Falls, Lake George, Plattsburgh, Potsdam, Amsterdam, and Cooperstown. The incumbent is Republican Elise Stefanik, who was re-elected with 59.15% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Republican primary

Declared

Endorsements

Elise Stefanik
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jill Lochner (R) $9,993[lower-alpha 16] $4,789 $5,204
Elise Stefanik (R) $3,479,032 $2,572,115 $1,823,705
Source: Federal Election Commission[167]

Democratic primary

Declared

  • Steven Holden, financial management consultant, retired U.S. Army officer, and nominee for the 24th district in 2022[168]

Endorsements

Steven Holden
Individuals

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Steven Holden (D) $13,383[lower-alpha 17] $17,636 $44,453
Source: Federal Election Commission[167]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid R December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid R December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe R February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe R September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid R November 16, 2023

District 22

The 22nd district is based in Central New York and the Mohawk Valley, including Syracuse and Utica. It includes all of Onondaga, Oneida, and Madison Counties and a small sliver of Oswego County.[7] The incumbent is Republican Brandon Williams, who was elected with 50.49% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Republican primary

Declared

Endorsements

Brandon Williams
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Brandon Williams (R) $1,343,672 $506,915 $860,921
Source: Federal Election Commission[171]

Democratic primary

Declared

Withdrew

Endorsements

Sarah Hood
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
John Mannion
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Clem Harris (D) $39,461 $6,382 $33,078
Sarah Hood (D) $552,316 $300,867 $252,040
Katelyn Kriesel (D)[lower-alpha 7] $15,516 $15,516 $0
John Mannion (D) $221,117 $69,874 $151,242
Source: Federal Election Commission[171]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Tossup December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Tossup December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Tossup February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Tossup September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Tossup November 16, 2023

District 23

The incumbent is Republican Nick Langworthy, who was elected with 64.92% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Republican primary

Potential

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Nick Langworthy (R) $699,028 $242,258 $547,239
Source: Federal Election Commission[186]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid R December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid R December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe R February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe R September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid R November 16, 2023

District 24

The incumbent is Republican Claudia Tenney, who was re-elected with 65.70% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Republican primary

Declared

  • Mario Fratto, attorney and candidate for this district in 2022[187]

Potential

Endorsements

Claudia Tenney
County chairs

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Mario Fratto (R) $0 $2,800 $235
Claudia Tenney (R) $812,429 $575,285 $298,593
Source: Federal Election Commission[189]

Democratic primary

Declared

  • David Wagenhauser, attorney[190]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid R December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid R December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe R February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe R September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid R November 16, 2023

District 25

The 25th district is based in the Rochester area, including all of Monroe County and most of Orleans County. The incumbent is Democrat Joseph Morelle, who was re-elected with 53.87% of the vote in 2022.[8]

Democratic primary

Potential

Endorsements

Joseph Morelle (not declared)
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Joseph Morelle (D) $595,693 $436,258 $212,310
Source: Federal Election Commission[191]

General election

Prediction

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid D December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid D December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe D February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe D September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid D November 16, 2023

District 26

The 26th district is based in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls area, including the more urban parts of Erie County and western Niagara County. Incumbent Democrat Brian Higgins, who was re-elected with 63.94% of the vote in 2022, is resigning before the election to take a position at the Buffalo Shea's Performing Arts Center.[8][192]

Democratic primary

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Declined

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Brian Higgins (D)[lower-alpha 18] $622,112 $420,500 $994,955
Source: Federal Election Commission[202]

General election

Prediction

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Solid D December 1, 2023
Inside Elections[21] Solid D December 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe D February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[23] Safe D September 7, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid D November 16, 2023

Notes

  1. ↑ $100,000 of this total was self-funded by Herskowitz
  2. ↑ $150,000 of this total was self-funded by Lubin
  3. ↑ $5,500 of this total was self-funded by Curry
  4. ↑ $200,000 of this total was self-funded by Hach
  5. ↑ $7,000 of this total was self-funded by Ludwig
  6. ↑ $150,000 of this total was self-funded by Norber
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Withdrawn candidate
  8. ↑ $300,050 of this total was self-funded by Sapraicone
  9. 1 2 3 4 Mayor
  10. ↑ $400,030 of this total was self-funded by Cheng
  11. ↑ $190,000 of this total was self-funded by Kaplan
  12. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  13. ↑ $4,456 of this total was self-funded by Maher
  14. ↑ $6,600 of this total was self-funded by Gereghty
  15. ↑ $50,000 of this total was self-funded by Ryan
  16. ↑ $5,000 of this total was self-funded by Lochner
  17. ↑ $13,383 of this total was self-funded by Holden
  18. ↑ Declined
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll commissioned by Gillen's campaign
  2. ↑ Poll commissioned by Mondaire Jones
  3. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by End Citizens United and Let America Vote.
  4. 1 2 Poll commissioned by the Congressional Leadership Fund, which supports Republican candidates

References

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  153. ↑ Campanile, Carl (November 12, 2023). "Retired NYPD cop Alison Esposito can beat upstate Dem in key district: House GOP poll". New York Post. Retrieved November 16, 2023.
  154. ↑ "Former lieutenant governor candidate jumps into HV congressional race". spectrumlocalnews.com. Retrieved October 23, 2023.
  155. ↑ Giblin, Pat (April 11, 2023). "Josh Riley will run for Congress again in 2024". WIVT News. In response, Molinaro said he will make a formal campaign announcement on his own timeline, and announcements from Riley or other candidates won't change that.
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  193. ↑ Joly, Aidan (January 11, 2024). "Tim Kennedy officially nominated for run at Congress". WIVB-TV. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
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  195. ↑ Wilson, Brayton (November 21, 2023). "Schumer reacts to Higgins' resignation from Congress; Peoples-Stokes discusses seat for NY-26". WBEN. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  196. ↑ McCarthy, Robert (December 18, 2023). "An updated look at who could lead NY's 26th Congressional District following Higgins' departure". WKBW-TV. Retrieved December 19, 2023. Indeed, Zellner said Kennedy is "far ahead" of Brown and Legislator Jeanne Vinal (who has also expressed interest) in fashioning a campaign operation.
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  199. ↑ Reyes, Anthony; McCarthy, Robert (November 10, 2023). "Byron Brown looks 'forward to a conversation' about future of NY-26 after report of Higgins' resignation". WKBW-TV. Retrieved November 14, 2023.
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  201. ↑ Soluri, Julia (December 10, 2023). "Erie County Executive Poloncarz will not seek Democratic nomination for Congress". WKBW-TV. Retrieved December 10, 2023.
  202. ↑ "2024 Election United States House – New York – District 26". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved November 10, 2023.
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