2024 United States Senate election in Maryland

November 5, 2024
 
Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator

Ben Cardin
Democratic



The 2024 United States Senate election in Maryland will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Maryland. The Democratic and Republican primary elections will be held on May 14, 2024.[1]

Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Ben Cardin was reelected in 2018 with 64.9% of the vote. On May 1, 2023, he announced that he would not be seeking reelection to a fourth term in office.[2]

Background

At the federal and state level, Maryland is a deeply blue state and one of the most reliably Democratic states in the nation, with Joe Biden carrying it by 33 points in the 2020 Presidential Election. Elections in Maryland are dominated by the Baltimore metropolitan area and the D.C. suburbs.[3] Democrats currently occupy both Senate seats, 7 out of 8 House seats, supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature, and all statewide offices.

Republicans have not won Maryland's Class 1 seat since 1970. Analysts consider this seat to be a safe hold for Democrats despite Cardin's retirement. As such, the Democratic primary is considered tantamount to election in this race.[4]

Democratic primary

Campaign

Cardin speaking on a stage with a "My Friend Ben Cardin for U.S. Senate" logo on a projector in the background
Ben Cardin in 2023

In the early months of 2023, Cardin's low fundraising and cash-on-hand numbers led to speculation that he would retire.[5][6] Several potential candidates, including Angela Alsobrooks and David Trone, began hiring campaign advisers in anticipation of Cardin's possible retirement,[7] which he announced on May 1, 2023, ending a political career that spanned over 50 years.[8]

The following day, at-large Montgomery County Councilmember Will Jawando announced that he would run for Senate.[9] He was joined by Trone[10] and Alsobrooks[11] later in the week. Upon Trone's entry into the race, the Democratic primary quickly developed into a contest between money and endorsements,[12] with Alsobrooks receiving major endorsements from the Maryland Democratic establishment[13][14] and Trone self-financing his campaign with $9.7 million in personal loans,[15] which he says protects him from political influence,[16] and suggesting that he could spend as much as $50 million on the race.[17] Alsobrooks and Trone, who have been viewed by media outlets as the frontrunners in the race,[18][19] have faced controversies that could damage their campaigns: Alsobrooks' record as a prosecutor has been scrutinized by progressive-media outlet The Intercept,[20] while Trone has faced criticism for his campaign contributions toward Republican politicians through Total Wine & More.[21][22] On the campaign trail, Alsobrooks has criticized Trone for these contributions and for spending heavily in the race, while Trone has characterized Alsobrooks as a "career politician" with an insufficient record on reproductive rights, and criticized her for not including any Latinos in her cabinet.[23]

Angela Alsobrooks (left) and David Trone (right) in 2023

During the Democratic primary, Jawando and Trone have sought to present themselves as progressives and political outsiders, pointing to their careers and political records,[24][25] despite Trone's record in Congress being more aligned with its moderate members.[26] Alsobrooks, meanwhile, has emphasized "kitchen-table" issues such as community safety and health care in her campaign while also focusing on her political career.[27][28] Candidates are expected to campaign heavily in the Baltimore metropolitan area, which is seen as a key battleground in the Democratic primary.[29][30]

Jawando dropped out of the race on October 20, 2023, and later endorsed Alsobrooks,[31] leaving a likely contest between Alsobrooks and Trone in the Democratic primary.[32][4]

Candidates

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Angela Alsobrooks
U.S. Ambassadors
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide elected officials
State cabinet officials
State legislators
County officials
Local officials
Party officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Will Jawando (withdrawn)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
David Trone
U.S. representatives
State legislators
County officials
Local officials
Labor unions
Declined to endorse
U.S. senators
Party officials
Organizations

Debates and forums

A straw poll was held during the Maryland Democratic Party's forum on the Eastern Shore, which was won by Alsobrooks, who received 125 votes to Trone's 98 votes and Dominguez's 15 votes.[102]

2024 Maryland Democratic Senate primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
Angela Alsobrooks Juan Dominguez David Trone
1[103] Oct 24, 2023 Maryland Federation of NARFE Barbara Cuffee N/A A A P
2[102] Nov 3, 2023 Maryland Democratic Party Sam Shoge N/A P P P
3[23] Dec 3, 2023 Latino Democrats of
Prince George's County
Patricia Villone
William Ford
TBD P P P

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Angela Alsobrooks (D) $3,256,404 $1,150,273 $2,106,131
Juan Dominguez (D)[lower-alpha 1] $248,135[lower-alpha 2] $210,412 $37,723
Will Jawando (D)[lower-alpha 1] $751,524 $429,191 $322,334
David Trone (D) $9,978,838[lower-alpha 3] $9,745,376 $436,568
Source: Federal Election Commission[104]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]
Margin
of error
Angela
Alsobrooks (D)
David
Trone (D)
Other Undecided
Hickman Analytics[upper-alpha 1] November 27–30, 2023 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 34% 41% 1% 25%
Perry, White, Ross & Jacobson LLC Mid-November 2023 813 (LV) 31% 36% 18%
RMG Research[upper-alpha 2] November 15–17, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 25% 45% 5%[lower-alpha 5] 25%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

Declined

Endorsements

John Teichert
Statewide elected officials
State cabinet officials
  • Mike Gill, former Maryland Secretary of Commerce (2015–2019; 2022–2023)[93]
State senators
State delegates

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Robin Ficker (R) $182,917[lower-alpha 6] $181,248 $1,669
Lorie Friend (R) $627 $3,220 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[104]

Third-party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

  • Emmanuel Osuchukwu, security guard (Independent)[37]

Withdrawn

Declined

Debates and forums

Osuchukwu attended the NARFE Maryland Federation forum on October 24, 2023.[103]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[113] Solid D November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[114] Solid D November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[115] Safe D November 9, 2023
Elections Daily[116] Safe D May 4, 2023
CNalysis[117] Solid D November 21, 2023

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Angela Alsobrooks vs. Larry Hogan
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]
Margin
of error
Angela
Alsobrooks (D)
Larry
Hogan (R)
Undecided
Perry, White, Ross & Jacobson LLC Mid-November 2023 813 (LV) 36% 42%
David Trone vs. Larry Hogan
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]
Margin
of error
David
Trone (D)
Larry
Hogan (R)
Undecided
Perry, White, Ross & Jacobson LLC Mid-November 2023 813 (LV) 49% 34%

Notes

  1. 1 2 Withdrawn candidate
  2. $146,610 of this total was self-funded by Dominguez
  3. $9,771,000 of this total was self-funded by Trone
  4. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. "Someone else" with 4%, "Would not vote" with 1%
  6. $181,248 of this total was self-funded by Ficker
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by David Trone
  2. Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits. David Trone has signed the group's term-limit pledge.

References

  1. "Legislation - HB0535". Maryland General Assembly. Archived from the original on April 24, 2023. Retrieved April 24, 2023.
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