2024 United States Senate election in Missouri
November 5, 2024
 
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Josh Hawley
Republican


The 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Incumbent Republican Josh Hawley was first elected in 2018 with 51.4% of the vote & is running for re-election to a second term in office. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024.[1]

Background

From 1904 to 2004, Missouri's electoral votes always went to the winner of the presidential race, with only one exception: in 1956, during the landslide re-election of President Dwight Eisenhower, Missouri went to Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. The state's accuracy in voting with the national consensus includes the highly competitive elections of 1960, 1976, and 2000.

Missouri is no longer thought of as a perennial swing state, and is today considered to be a strongly red state. Since 1964, the only three Democrats it has backed have been Southerners: Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. In 2008, Missouri narrowly voted for the losing candidate, Republican John McCain, despite a sizable electoral college win for Democrat Barack Obama. In 2012, Missouri favored losing candidate Mitt Romney by nearly 10 percentage points, despite another significant victory for Obama in the rest of the country. In 2016 and 2020, Missouri again voted strongly Republican, this time for Donald Trump by over 15 points, despite Trump losing the latter election. This marked the third time in four presidential elections that Missouri supported a losing Republican. Missouri has not supported any Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996, despite there being three subsequent elections won by Democrats.

In more recent years, Republicans have experienced significant electoral success in the state. In 2016, the Republican Party secured victories in key statewide positions, including Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer. Building on this momentum, in 2022, Scott Fitzpatrick successfully won the position of Auditor, a seat previously held by Democrat Nicole Galloway. Notably, Nicole Galloway remains the last Democrat to have been elected to a statewide position in the state.

The most recent Democrat to secure election to the Senate from Missouri was Claire McCaskill back in 2012. She sought a third term in 2018, facing off against Josh Hawley, but was ultimately defeated by a margin of 5.8%.

Most pollsters categorize this race as a secure one for the Republican Party.[2][3][4][5]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Josh Hawley
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Josh Hawley (R) $17,289,600 $13,019,357 $4,745,758
Source: Federal Election Commission[9]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Wesley Bell (withdrawn)
State officials
State legislators
Municipal officials
Local officials
Organizations
Lucas Kunce
U.S. representatives
State officials
State legislators
Municipal officials
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Karla May
State legislators
Local officials

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Lucas Kunce (D) $3,879,768 $2,167,676 $1,719,373
December Harmon (D) $9,293 $7,993 $1,299
Source: Federal Election Commission[9]

Independents

Declared

  • Jared Young, payroll services executive[49]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[2] Solid R November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[3] Solid R November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[4] Safe R November 9, 2023
Elections Daily[5] Safe R May 4, 2023
CNalysis[50] Solid R November 21, 2023

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Josh Hawley vs. Lucas Kunce
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Josh
Hawley (R)		 Lucas
Kunce (D)		 Other Undecided
Show Me Victories (D) October 26-31, 2023 407 (RV) ± 4.9% 46% 42% 4% 8%
Emerson College October 1-4, 2023 491 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 32% 5% 17%
GQR Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] August 16–19, 2023 863 (LV) ± 3.34% 44% 43% – 12%
Josh Hawley vs. Wesley Bell
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Josh
Hawley (R)		 Wesley
Bell (D)		 Other Undecided
Emerson College October 1-4, 2023 491 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 34% 5% 17%

Notes

  1. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Kunce's campaign

References

  1. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. 1 2 "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  3. 1 2 "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  4. 1 2 "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  5. 1 2 "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  6. ↑ Jones, Dustin (January 20, 2023). "Hawley on the ballot: The 2024 Senate elections are already getting competitive". KCUR 89.3. NPR. Retrieved May 22, 2023.
  7. ↑ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC. Retrieved March 31, 2023.
  8. ↑ "Senate Conservatives Fund". www.senateconservatives.com. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  9. 1 2 "2024 Election United States Senate - Missouri". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  10. ↑ Southey, Stephanie (January 16, 2023). "Columbia activist announces bid for U.S. Senate". KOMU. Retrieved January 16, 2023.
  11. ↑ Otterbein, Holly (January 6, 2023). "The first Democrat emerges to take on Josh Hawley". POLITICO. Retrieved January 6, 2023.
  12. ↑ Rosenbaum, Jason (July 9, 2023). "Democratic state Sen. Karla May will enter Missouri's U.S. Senate contest". St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved July 9, 2023.
  13. ↑ "Wesley Bell announces run against Cori Bush for Congress". ksdk.com. October 30, 2023. Retrieved October 30, 2023.
  14. ↑ Palermo, Gregg (August 31, 2023). "Notebook: What Illinois voters think of a Pritzker presidential bid; Kunce rallies in St. Louis". Spectrum News Local. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
  15. 1 2 Maxwell, Mark (June 28, 2023). "North St. Louis County mayors, Kansas City prosecutor back Wesley Bell's bid for U.S. Senate". KSDK 5. Retrieved June 29, 2023.
  16. ↑ Bayless, Kacen (June 28, 2023). "Jean Peters Baker endorses STL County prosecutor Bell's campaign against Josh Hawley". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved June 29, 2023.
  17. 1 2 Rosenbaum, Jason (June 7, 2023). "St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell announces U.S. Senate run". KWMU St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved June 10, 2023.
  18. ↑ "Candidates". The Collective PAC. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
  19. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Holleman, Joe (June 13, 2023). "Lucas Kunce boasts endorsements from some prominent St. Louis pols". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  20. ↑ Kander, Jason (December 12, 2023). "Josh Hawley is vulnerable in next year's Senate election. Even Donald Trump knows it". Kansas City Star. Retrieved December 12, 2023.
  21. ↑ Holleman, Joe (March 30, 2023). "Former Missouri lieutenant governor endorses Lucas Kunce for US Senate". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  22. ↑ Drebes, Dave (June 13, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Sensible Missouri, Schmitt Speech, AirBnB Lobbyist, Kunce Endorsements, Lovasco Hits SCCRCC and more". MOScout. Retrieved June 29, 2023.
  23. ↑ Rowden, Tim (June 19, 2023). "Missouri AFL-CIO backs Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. Retrieved June 19, 2023.
  24. ↑ Holleman, Joe (August 29, 2023). "Lucas Kunce fires up St. Louis-area crowd, including local politicians". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
  25. ↑ Drebes, Dave (June 28, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Parson to Swing Budget Axe? Massage Tax IP? Wood Retires (Again), Nixa's Book Challenge Committee, and more". MoScout. Retrieved June 28, 2023.
  26. 1 2 Rosenbaum, Jason (July 20, 2023). "Missouri Democrats debate whether U.S. Senate primary is a help or hindrance". St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
  27. ↑ Holleman, Joe (June 15, 2023). "St. Louis County councilwoman backs Lucas Kunce in U.S. Senate race". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved June 19, 2023.
  28. ↑ Holleman, Joe (October 30, 2023). "Lucas Kunce's US Senate bid gets more St. Louis County Council support". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved November 16, 2023.
  29. ↑ Drebes, Dave (May 12, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Final Day of Session, New PAC, White for Kunce, and more". MOScout. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  30. ↑ Krull, Ryan (June 7, 2023). "MISSOURI NEWS: Missouri Senate Race Could Draw Big Money, National Attention". Riverfront Times. Retrieved June 10, 2023.
  31. 1 2 Swift, Jim (March 14, 2023). "Challenger to Hawley: Quit Your 'Fake Populism'". The Bulwark. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  32. 1 2 Klein, Howie (January 6, 2023). "January 6— Lucas Kunce Launches His Campaign For Senate. What Better Day To Start The Process Of Removing Insurrectionist Josh Hawley?". Blue America PAC. Retrieved March 30, 2023.
  33. 1 2 "Three unions endorse 'warrior for working people' Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. April 10, 2023. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
  34. ↑ Drebes, David (May 5, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Gardner Resigns, Brattin Protests, KC Building Trades for Kunce and more". MOScout. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
  35. ↑ Drebes, David (April 23, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Big Bill Pile-up Comind, MATA's GOP Picks?, Kunce's Stride Toward Nomination, and more". MOScout. Retrieved April 23, 2023.
  36. ↑ "Insulators Local 1 endorses Lucas Kunce for Senate". Sun Times News Online. March 30, 2023. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  37. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 "Missouri Fire Fighters endorse Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. June 5, 2023. Retrieved June 5, 2023.
  38. ↑ Hollemann, Joe (June 7, 2023). "Kunce secures major labor endorsement in Missouri race for US Senate". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved June 7, 2023.
  39. ↑ Drebes, Dave (May 25, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Chrismer in Senate '23, Keller to Lead Pro-Richey PAC, Club For Growth Coming, Kunce Gets Fire Fighters, and More". MOScout. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  40. ↑ PFEM 2665 (@pfem2665) (August 30, 2023). "On Monday night members of @PFEM2665 continued our strong tradition of political action as we rallied for US Senate candidate @LucasKunceMO alongside @iaffdist2 VP Mark Woolbright. Thanks for leading the charge, brothers and sisters!". Twitter. Retrieved September 19, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  41. ↑ Holleman, Joe (June 26, 2023). "St. Louis County Council chair endorses Lucas Kunce over Wesley Bell". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
  42. ↑ Youngblood, Kaitlin (October 11, 2023). "SEIU Missouri/Kansas State Council Announces Endorsement of Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". SEIU Healthcare. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
  43. ↑ "UFCW 655 endorses Lucas Kunce for U.S. Senate". The Labor Tribune. May 22, 2023. Retrieved May 22, 2023.
  44. ↑ Drebes, Dave (November 17, 2023). "MOScout Daily Update: Firefighters for Bailey, Imagining the Rowden Campaign, Marijuana Drama, and More - Kunce Nabs Freedom Inc". MOScout. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
  45. ↑ Indivisible St. Louis (April 10, 2023). "We're starting to see some serious MO-mentum, Deborah! [...] Lucas Kunce is ready to stand up and serve Missourians in the U.S. Senate. So, if you're ready to elect a real warrior for working people to Missouri's U.S. Senate seat, will you chip in $10 or ANY amount to our grassroots campaign today?". Facebook. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
  46. ↑ "Lucas Kunce". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  47. ↑ Holleman, Joe (September 22, 2023). "Lucas Kunce gets endorsement from national conservation group". STLtoday.com. Archived from the original on September 22, 2023. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  48. ↑ Rosenbaum, Jason (July 9, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Karla May promises to bring fight to Hawley". St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved October 3, 2023.
  49. ↑ Holleman, Joe (August 31, 2023). "Joplin businessman running as independent for US Senate in Missouri". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  50. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
Official campaign websites
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