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The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the Governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections. Incumbent governor Roy Cooper is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third consecutive term in office. This is the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020. Primary elections will take place on March 5, 2024.[1]
If won by a Republican candidate it would make it the first time ever that every former Confederate State would have a Republican governor at the same time.
Background
A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. Both U.S. senators from the state are members of the Republican Party. However, its U.S. House delegation is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, and Democrats hold multiple statewide offices in North Carolina, including the attorney general, secretary of state, and the governorship. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried North Carolina by 1.34 percentage points.[2][3]
The incumbent, Roy Cooper, was first elected in 2016, defeating then-incumbent governor Pat McCrory by about 0.2 points. Cooper was re-elected in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points.[3][4]
The 2024 election is expected to be competitive due to a variety of factors: North Carolina is a purple to slightly red state, the election is taking place in a presidential election year, and the seat is open due to term-limits facing the incumbent. The first Democrat to enter the race was Josh Stein, the current Attorney General. He was followed by recently-retired N.C. Supreme Court Justice Michael R. Morgan. Two Republicans who are currently serving in positions that are elected statewide have declared their candidacy: Mark Robinson, the current lieutenant governor, and Dale Folwell, the current State Treasurer.[5]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Chrelle Booker, Tryon city councilor (2019–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[6]
- Gary Foxx, former Princeville police chief[7]
- Michael Morgan, former North Carolina Supreme Court justice (2016–2023)[8]
- Josh Stein, North Carolina Attorney General (2017–present)[5]
- Marcus Williams, attorney and perennial candidate[7]
Declined
- Sydney Batch, state senator from the 17th district (2021–present)[9] (endorsed Stein)[5]
- Jeff Jackson, U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 14th congressional district (2023–present)[9] (endorsed Stein, running for Attorney General)[10]
- Natalie Murdock, state senator from the 20th district (2020–present)[9] (endorsed Stein)[5]
- Robert T. Reives II, Minority Leader of the North Carolina House of Representatives (2021–present) from the 54th district (2014–present)[9] (endorsed Stein)[11]
Endorsements
Josh Stein
- U.S. representatives
- G. K. Butterfield, North Carolina's 1st district (2004–2022)[12]
- Eva Clayton, North Carolina's 1st district (1992–2003)[12]
- Valerie Foushee, North Carolina's 4th district (2023–present)[13]
- Jeff Jackson, North Carolina's 14th district (2023–present)[10]
- Kathy Manning, North Carolina's 6th district (2021–present)[14]
- Wiley Nickel, North Carolina's 13th district (2023–present)[10]
- Deborah Ross, North Carolina's 2nd district (2021–present)[15]
- Statewide elected officials
- Roy Cooper, Governor of North Carolina (2017–present)[16]
- Jim Hunt, former Governor of North Carolina (1977–1985, 1993–2001)[11]
- State supreme court justices
- Burley Mitchell, former Chief Justice (1995–1999) and Associate Justice (1982–1995)[17]
- State legislators
- Robert T. Reives II, minority leader of the House of Representatives[11]
- Local officials
- Individuals
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)[18]
- Labor unions
- North Carolina AFL-CIO[19]
- North Carolina Association of Educators[20]
- Organizations
- Durham Committee on the Affairs of Black People[21]
- End Citizens United[22]
- Let America Vote[22]
- NextGen America PAC[18]
- North Carolina League of Conservation Voters[23]
- Reproductive Freedom for All[24]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Chrelle Booker |
Gary Foxx |
Michael Morgan |
Josh Stein |
Marcus Williams |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | December 15–16, 2023 | 556 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 56% | 4% | – | 32% |
| Meredith College | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | – | – | 11% | 38% | – | 9% | 42% |
| Meredith College | September 16–19, 2023 | 308 (RV) | ± 3.5% | – | – | 11% | 33% | – | 10% | 46% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Mandy Cohen |
Jeff Jackson |
Josh Stein |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 18% | 12% | 22% | 9% | 39% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Chrelle Booker | |||
| Democratic | Gary Foxx | |||
| Democratic | Michael Morgan | |||
| Democratic | Josh Stein | |||
| Democratic | Marcus Williams | |||
| Total votes | ||||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Dale Folwell, North Carolina State Treasurer (2017–present)[25]
- Bill Graham, attorney and candidate for governor in 2008[26]
- Mark Robinson, Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina (2021–present)[27]
Withdrawn
- Jesse Thomas, retired healthcare executive[28] (running for Secretary of State)[29]
- Mark Walker, former U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 6th congressional district (2015–2021) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 (running for U.S. House)[30]
- Andy Wells, former state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020[31][32]
Declined
- Thom Tillis, U.S. Senator from North Carolina (2015–present)[9][33] (endorsed Graham)[34]
Endorsements
Bill Graham
- U.S. Senators
- Thom Tillis, U.S. Senator from North Carolina (2015–present)[34]
Mark Robinson
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, former President of the United States (2017–2021)[35]
- U.S. Senators
- Ted Budd, North Carolina (2023–present)[36]
- U.S. Representatives
- Dan Bishop, North Carolina's 8th congressional district (2019–present)[27]
- State legislators
- Phil Berger, President pro tempore of the North Carolina Senate (2011–present) from the 26th district (2001–present)[37]
- Danny Britt, state senator from the 24th district (2017–present)[27]
- Neal Jackson, state representative from the 78th district (2023–present)[37]
- Charlie Miller, state representative from the 19th district (2021–present)[27]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Dale Folwell |
Bill Graham |
Mark Robinson |
Jesse Thomas |
Mark Walker |
Andy Wells |
Other | Undecided | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | January 5–6, 2024 | 619 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 7% | 15% | 55% | – | – | – | – | 24% | |||||
| Wells withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| ECU Center for Survey Research | November 29 – Dec 1, 2023 | 445 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 7% | 8% | 34% | – | – | 3% | – | 49% | |||||
| Thomas withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Meredith College | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 3% | 5% | 41% | 2% | – | 1% | 6% | 42% | |||||
| Walker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Graham joins the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Cygnal[upper-alpha 2] | October 8–9, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 5% | – | 49% | 1% | 4% | 1% | – | 41% | |||||
| Meredith College | September 16–19, 2023 | 350 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 3% | – | 34% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 44% | |||||
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Dale Folwell |
Pat McCrory |
Mark Robinson |
Thom Tillis |
Steve Troxler |
Mark Walker |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion Diagnostics | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 4% | - | 44% | - | - | 7% | 7% | 38% |
| SurveyUSA[upper-alpha 2] | April 25–29, 2023 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 4% | - | 43% | - | 9% | 8% | - | 37% |
| The Differentiators (R) | December 12, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 6% | - | 60% | - | - | - | - | 34% |
| - | 21% | 60% | - | - | - | - | 19% | ||||
| - | - | 58% | - | - | 8% | - | 34% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 4% | - | 54% | 20% | - | - | 5% | 17% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dale Folwell | |||
| Republican | Bill Graham | |||
| Republican | Mark Robinson | |||
| Total votes | ||||
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
Candidates
Declared
- Shannon Bray, cybersecurity professional and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 and 2022[38]
- Mike Ross, treasurer of the North Carolina Libertarian Party[39]
Green Party
Candidates
Declared
- Wayne Turner, co-chair of the North Carolina Green Party[7]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[40] | Lean D | July 21, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[41] | Tossup | September 1, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[42] | Tossup | July 13, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[43] | Tossup | July 12, 2023 |
Polling
- Josh Stein vs. Dale Folwell
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Josh Stein (D) |
Dale Folwell (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECU Center for Survey Research | Nov 29 – Dec 1, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 38% | 22% |
| Cygnal (R)[upper-alpha 2] | May 12–23, 2023 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 39% | 34% | 27% |
- Josh Stein vs. Bill Graham
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Josh Stein (D) |
Bill Graham (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECU Center for Survey Research | Nov 29 – Dec 1, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
- Josh Stein vs. Mark Robinson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Josh Stein (D) |
Mark Robinson (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECU Center for Survey Research | November 29 – December 1, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Meredith College | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 36% | 19% |
| Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] | September 1–5, 2023 | 914 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Opinion Diagnostics | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 38% | 41% | 21% |
| Cygnal (R)}[upper-alpha 2] | May 12–23, 2023 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 41% | 42% | 18% |
| Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] | May 5–8, 2023 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | March 2–3, 2023 | 704 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Differentiators (R)[upper-alpha 3] | January 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Meeting Street Insights (R)[upper-alpha 4] | May 12–16, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
Hypothetical polling
- Josh Stein vs. Mark Walker
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Josh Stein (D) |
Mark Walker (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[upper-alpha 2] | May 12–23, 2023 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
- ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
- ↑ "Republican Ted Budd wins North Carolina's U.S. Senate race". AP NEWS. November 8, 2022. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
- 1 2 "State Composite Abstract Report - Contest.pdf" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
- ↑ "North Carolina Official General Election Results". North Carolina State Board of Elections. November 8, 2016. Retrieved January 5, 2017.
- 1 2 3 4 Schneider, Elena (January 18, 2023). "North Carolina AG Josh Stein launches bid for governor". POLITICO. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
- ↑ Langston, Grant (December 7, 2023). "Tryon councilwoman eyes North Carolina governor seat". Tryon Daily Bulletin. Retrieved December 9, 2023.
- 1 2 3 Mikkelsen, Emily; Melrose, Justyn (December 15, 2023). "Election 2024 North Carolina: These are the candidates who filed for races impacting the Piedmont Triad". WGHP. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
- ↑ Schoenbaum, Hannah (September 12, 2023). "Former North Carolina justice enters Democratic primary for governor in 2024". Associated Press.
- 1 2 3 4 5 Doyle, Steve (November 15, 2022). "Who will run to replace North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper? Here are 6 possibilities". FOX8 WGHP. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
- 1 2 3 4 "North Carolina AG Josh Stein running for governor in 2024".
- 1 2 3 Doyle, Steve (January 18, 2023). "Democrat Josh Stein is running for North Carolina governor. But who else may be on the ballot? We have names". FOX8.
- 1 2 "Stein Kicks Off the 2024 Cycle".
- ↑ "Josh Stein, NC's attorney general, announces his bid for governor".
- ↑ Singer, Jeff (January 20, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/20".
- ↑ "Democratic NC Attorney General Josh Stein to run for governor". January 18, 2023.
- ↑ Hubbard, Kathryn (August 30, 2023). "Gov. Roy Cooper endorses AG Josh Stein for NC governor". WNCN.
- ↑ Chi-Sing, Haley (January 18, 2023). "NC Democrat AG Stein announces run for governor, immediately slams Lt Gov Robinson". Fox News. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
- 1 2 "NextGen PAC Endorses North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
- ↑ McMillan, MaryBe (June 8, 2023). "North Carolina AFL-CIO Endorses Josh Stein for Governor". NC State AFL-CIO. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
- ↑ "NCAE Endorses Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor in 2024". North Carolina Association of Educators. April 1, 2023. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
- ↑ Vaughan, Dawn Baumgartner; Moore, Mary Helen (January 10, 2024). "Influential Black voters PAC in NC makes its picks for governor, AG and other elections". The News & Observer. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- 1 2 "End Citizens United / Let America Vote Endorses Josh Stein for North Carolina Governor". End Citizens United. May 31, 2023. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
- ↑ "NCLCV Conservation PAC endorses AG Josh Stein for Governor". March 1, 2023. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
- ↑ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor in North Carolina". Reproductive Freedom for All. November 2, 2023. Archived from the original on November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 2, 2023.
- ↑ Robertson, Gary (March 25, 2023). "North Carolina treasurer running for governor in 2024". The Seattle Times. Retrieved March 25, 2023.
- ↑ Solano, Christina (October 18, 2023). "North Carolina's race for governor grows with campaign announcement by Bill Graham". WXII-TV. Retrieved October 18, 2023.
- 1 2 3 4 Mikkelsen, Emily; Stamps, Brayden (April 22, 2023). "Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson announces run for governor at cloudy Ace Speedway rally". Fox 8. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
- ↑ "Retired health care executive entering North Carolina's 2024 governor's race as a Republican". WUNC. August 8, 2023.
- ↑ "Ex-health care executive ends bid for North Carolina governor, running now for secretary of state". Associated Press. November 2, 2023.
- ↑ Woodhouse, Dallas (October 25, 2023). "Mark Walker exits governor's race to seek new Triad-area congressional seat". Carolina Journal. Retrieved October 25, 2023.
- ↑ Fain, Travis (July 20, 2023). "Another Republican joins NC's 2024 governor's race". WRAL-TV.
- ↑ Griffin, Kevin (December 16, 2023). "Former state senator from Hickory declines to file for governor after announcing campaign". Hickory Daily Record. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
- ↑ "U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis talks openly on hot topics, career ambitions and his song playlist".
- 1 2 Fahlberg, Audrey (December 8, 2023). "Senator Thom Tillis Endorses Attorney Bill Graham in N.C. GOP Gov Primary, Dealing Blow to Frontrunner Mark Robinson". National Review.
- ↑ "Trump Pledges to Endorse Mark Robinson for North Carolina Governor". U.S. News. June 10, 2023. Retrieved June 12, 2023.
- ↑ Robertson, Gary D. (April 22, 2023). "Conservative Robinson joins race for N. Carolina governor". Associated Press. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
- 1 2 Bajpai, Avi (April 22, 2023). "NC Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson officially launches his campaign for governor". News & Observer. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
- ↑ Doyle, Steve (May 25, 2023). "Shannon Bray becomes second Libertarian in race for North Carolina governor". WAVY News 10. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
- ↑ Doyle, Steve (March 24, 2023). "Libertarian from Gaston County enters North Carolina governor's race". Fox 8. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
- ↑ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ↑ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
External links
- Official campaign websites
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