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The 2024 United States presidential election in Missouri is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Missouri voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Missouri has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] Missouri — a nigh-infallible bellwether state for much of the 20th century going into the 2000s — has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000 and is widely understood to have lost its bellwether status when Democrat Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois failed to carry the state in either of his election bids, followed by Republican Donald Trump carrying it by double digits in both of his. The Show-Me State is once again predicted to be securely won by the Republican candidate in 2024.[2]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3]
Primary elections
Republican primary
The Missouri Republican primary is scheduled to be held on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Idaho, Mississippi, and Washington.
General election
Polling
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout | October 10-11, 2023 | 806 (RV) | ± | 52% | 39% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA | October 27 – November 1, 2022 | 991 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 34% | 14% |
| Emerson College | October 26–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 37% | 10% |
| Emerson College | September 23–27, 2022 | 1,160 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 37% | 12% |
| SurveyUSA | September 14–18, 2022 | 830 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 52% | 35% | 13% |
| SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 1,981 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 35% | 14% |
| SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 35% | 15% |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout | September 18–20, 2021 | 1,014 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 55% | 36% | 9% |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout | April 21–22, 2021 | 933 (LV) | ± 3% | 53% | 38% | 9% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[4] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[5] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] | Solid R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[7] | Solid R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[8] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[9] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
See also
Notes
- ↑ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
References
- ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ↑ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
- ↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
