Several polling firms will conduct opinion polls during the term of the 54th New Zealand Parliament (2023–present) for the next New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1 News) conducted by Verian (formerly known as Colmar Brunton and Kantar Public) and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

The current parliament was elected on 14 October 2023. The next election is expected to take place in late 2026.

Party vote

The parties shown in the table are National (NAT), Labour (LAB), Green (GRN), ACT, New Zealand First (NZF), Te Pāti Māori (TPM), and Opportunities (TOP). Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.

Date[lower-alpha 1] Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB GRN ACT NZF TPM TOP Margin
of error		 Lead
16 Dec 2023 Golriz Ghahraman resigns from Parliament after allegations of shoplifting.[1]
3–5 Dec 2023 Curia –36.528.810.86.28.15––7.7
3 Dec 2023 Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party.[2]
Nov 2023 Roy Morgan 92037.52112.512.582.53.5–16.5
27 Nov 2023 Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand
1–6 Nov 2023 Taxpayers' Union-Curia 1,0003728.313.88.163.42.9± 3.1%8.7
14 Oct 2023 2023 election result N/A38.0826.9211.618.646.093.082.22–11.16
Date[lower-alpha 1] Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB GRN ACT NZF TPM TOP Margin
of error		 Lead

Preferred prime minister

Date[lower-alpha 1] Polling organisation Sample size Luxon Hipkins Swarbrick Seymour Peters Lead
3–5 Dec 2023 Curia 3022–––8
1–6 Nov 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00033186.34515

Government approval rating

Date[lower-alpha 1] Polling organisation Sample size Right direction Wrong direction Do not know Lead
Nov 2023 Roy Morgan 92036.54617.59.5
9–12 Nov 2023 Guardian Essential 1,19329482319
1–6 Nov 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00029492220

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[3]

Source Seats in parliament[lower-roman 1] Likely
government
formation(s)
NAT LAB GRN ACT NZF TPM Total
Curia[4]
3–5 Dec 2023 poll		 4636148106 120 National–NZ First–ACT (64)
Roy Morgan[5]
Nov 2023 poll		 48271616106*** 123 National–ACT (64)
2023 election result[6]
14 Oct 2023		 4834151186** 122 National–ACT–NZ First (67)
* indicates an overhang seat
  1. ↑ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.

References

  1. ↑ "Golriz Ghahraman resigns from Parliament". Newshub. Retrieved 15 January 2024.
  2. ↑ Gill, Sinead (3 December 2023). "TOP leader Raf Manji resigns". The Post.
  3. ↑ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  4. ↑ Coughlan, Thomas (12 December 2023). "Support for Christopher Luxon drops, NZ First overtakes Act in new poll". New Zealand Herald.
  5. ↑ "National, ACT and NZ First increase their level of support in first Roy Morgan Poll after NZ Election". Roy Morgan. 19 December 2023.
  6. ↑ "2023 General Election - Official Result". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. 3 November 2023.
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