Next Bulgarian parliamentary election
Bulgaria
By 12 June 2027
All 240 seats in the National Assembly
121 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeader Current seats
GERB—SDS Boyko Borisov 69
PP–DB Kiril Petkov 64
Revival Kostadin Kostadinov 37
DPS TBD[1] 36
BSPzB Korneliya Ninova 23
ITN Slavi Trifonov 11
Incumbent Prime Minister
Nikolai Denkov
PP

Parliamentary elections will be held in Bulgaria by 12 June 2027 to elect members of the National Assembly.

Background

Following several snap elections, the Bulgarian National Assembly had failed to put together a long-lasting government since 'anti-corruption' parties made a breakthrough in the April 2021 election.[2][3] The 2023 elections saw little change from the 2022 one, with Boyko Borisov's centre-right GERB—SDS narrowly winning over the centrist PP–DB alliance. The far right Revival (VAZ) and the populist There is Such a People (ITN) made gains, with the latter re-entering the Assembly after it fell out in the 2022 election.[4][5]

On 22 May 2023 PP and GERB agreed to form a government with a rotational premiership. Nikolai Denkov, PP's candidate would be the Prime Minister for the first nine months of the government and Mariya Gabriel, the GERB candidate, would serve as Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister. After nine months, the two would switch positions.[6]

Parties

Parliamentary parties

The table below lists the political party groups represented in the 49th National Assembly.

Name Ideology Position Leader(s) 2023 result
Votes (%) Seats
GERB—SDS GERB—Union of Democratic Forces Conservatism Centre-right Boyko Borisov 25.4%
69 / 240
[lower-alpha 1]
PP–DB We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria Liberalism Centre Kiril Petkov
Asen Vasilev		 23.5%
64 / 240
[lower-alpha 2]
Revival Revival Ultranationalism Far-right Kostadin Kostadinov 13.6%
37 / 240
DPS Movement for Rights and Freedoms Turkish minority interests Centre Mustafa Karadayi 13.2%
36 / 240
BSPzB BSP for Bulgaria Social democracy Centre-left Korneliya Ninova 8.6%
23 / 240
ITN There is Such a People Populism Big tent Slavi Trifonov 3.9%[lower-alpha 3]
11 / 240

Opinion polls

Local regression of polls conducted

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data and exclude polls that chose "I will not vote" or "I am uncertain" options.

121 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample GERB—SDS PP–DB Revival DPS BSPzB ITN BV The Left! Others NOTA Lead Govt. Opp.
Mediana 7–13 Dec 2023 978 22.9
68		 15.6
46		 13.5
40		 12.2
36		 11.3
33		 5.9
17		 1.5
0		 3.5
0		 3.6 10.0 7.3 38.5 51.5
Alpha Research 22–30 Nov 2023 1000 25.9
68		 21.1
55		 14.4
38		 12.8
34		 11.4
30		 5.8
15		 — — 8.6 — 4.8 47.0 53.0
Market Links 10–19 Nov 2023 1014 26.3
71		 20.1
54		 12.8
35		 14.4
39		 10.5
29		 4.5
12		 — — 7.0 4.2 6.2 46.4 49.4
Trend 11–18 Nov 2023 1006 24.7
70		 17.9
50		 15.4
43		 13.3
38		 9.4
27		 4.4
12		 2.0
0		 1.9
0		 3.6 7.4 6.8 42.6 50.0
Market Links 26 Sept–8 Oct 2023 1032 27.1
78		 20.1
58		 12.7
37		 14.2
41		 9.1
26		 3.2
0		 — — 7.0 6.8 7.0 47.2 46.0
Trend 2–8 Sept 2023 1002 24.9
70		 18.3
51		 16.1
45		 13.4
38		 8.7
24		 4.2
12		 2.1
0		 1.9
0		 3.9 6.5 6.6 43.2 50.3
Market Links 11–18 Aug 2023 1012 26.2
70		 21.7
58		 12.8
34		 15.1
41		 8.3
22		 5.4
15		 — — 7.2 3.0 4.5 47.9 48.8
Mediana 18–24 Jul 2023 976 23.3
67		 18.0
51		 15.4
44		 12.9
37		 9.0
26		 5.4
15		 2.5
0		 2.1
0		 2.0[lower-alpha 4] 9.3 5.3 41.3 49.3
Trend 4–11 Jul 2023 1001 24.8
70		 19.1
54		 15.5
43		 13.7
38		 8.6
24		 4.0
11		 1.8
0		 1.9
0		 4.3 6.3 5.7 43.9 49.8
Gallup 29 Jun–9 Jul 2023 809 26.4
69		 21.8
57		 14.9
39		 14.5
38		 9.7
26		 4.3
11		 2.0
0		 — 6.4 — 4.6 48.2 51.8
CAM 3–7 Jul 2023 1021 26.2
74		 21.4
61		 14.5
41		 13.4
38		 9.0
26		 3.7
0		 1.8
0		 1.8
0		 3.7 4.5 4.8 47.6 47.9
Market Links 22 Jun–2 Jul 2023 1011 27.5
75		 20.9
57		 13.8
38		 17.0
46		 8.9
24		 3.8
0		 — — 3.6 4.6 6.6 48.4 47.0
Alpha Research 20–26 Jun 2023 1000 25.1
70		 20.2
56		 15.4
43		 12.6
35		 8.8
25		 4.1
11		 — 2.7
0		 7.5 3.6 4.9 45.3 51.1
Exacta 12–20 Jun 2023 1040 24.4
67		 20.1
56		 14.8
41		 13.2
37		 9.5
26		 4.8
13		 1.9
0		 1.8
0		 3.6 5.9 4.3 44.5 49.6
Trend 10–16 Jun 2023 1008 24.9
69		 19.4
54		 15.3
43		 13.5
37		 8.9
25		 4.3
12		 2.2
0		 1.9
0		 3.8 5.8 5.5 44.3 49.9
6 June 2023 The Denkov Government is sworn in
Gallup 27 Apr–5 May 2023 803 26.8
69		 24.1
62		 14.7
38		 13.9
36		 9.1
24		 4.1
11		 3.2
0		 1.5
0		 2.6 4.3[lower-alpha 5] 2.7 50.9 49.1
2023 election 2 Apr 2023 — 25.4
69		 23.5
64		 13.6
37		 13.2
36		 8.6
23		 3.9
11		 2.9
0		 2.1
0		 2.6 4.1 1.9 48.9 46.9

Notes

  1. ↑ GERB 66, SDS 2, DG 1
  2. ↑ PP 36, DaB! 13, DSB 10, ZD 3, Volt 1, SEK 1
  3. ↑ ITN entered the Assembly despite being seemingly below the threshold as None of the above votes do not count towards the threshold.
  4. ↑ Justice for Bulgaria with 1.0%, "Other" with 1.0%
  5. ↑ This poll reported the percentage respondents do not support any party, however the rest of the data was recalculated to exclude these percentages

References

  1. ↑ https://bntnews.bg/news/mustafa-karadaia-podade-ostavka-kato-predsedatel-na-dps-1255064news.html
  2. ↑ "Bulgaria's Petkov points finger at mafia and Russia as government collapses". POLITICO. 22 June 2022. Retrieved 10 April 2023.
  3. ↑ "Bulgaria gears for its fifth election in two years on April 2". Reuters. 24 January 2023. Retrieved 10 April 2023.
  4. ↑ Network, EURACTIV (3 April 2023). "Bulgarian elections: Pro-Russia party may 'force' a pro-EU coalition". www.euractiv.com. Retrieved 3 April 2023.
  5. ↑ "Ex-PM Borissov's GERB nudges ahead in Bulgarian election, partial results show". Reuters. 3 April 2023. Retrieved 3 April 2023.
  6. ↑ Христова, Анна (13 April 2023). "102-ото правителство академично до февруари - Денков пръв, после 9 месеца Габриел премиер (Обзор)". 24chasa.com (in Bulgarian). Retrieved 22 May 2023.
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