2024 Northern Territory general election
24 August 2024
All 25 seats in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Eva Lawler Lia Finocchiaro
Party Labor Country Liberal
Leader since 21 December 2023 1 February 2020
Leader's seat Drysdale Spillett
Last election 14 seats, 39.43% 8 seats, 31.34%
Current seats 14 seats[lower-alpha 1] 7 seats[lower-alpha 2]
Seats needed Steady Increase 6
Incumbent Chief Minister

Eva Lawler
Labor


The 2024 Northern Territory general election is scheduled to be held on 24 August 2024 to elect all 25 members of the Legislative Assembly in the unicameral Northern Territory Parliament.

Members will be elected through full preferential instant-runoff voting in single-member electorates. The incumbent centre-left Labor Party (ALP) majority government, led by Eva Lawler since December 2023, will attempt to win a third consecutive four-year term of government, similar to that seen previously in Queensland and Victoria, which will be challenged by the centre-right Country Liberal Party (CLP) opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro.

The election will be conducted by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission.

Background

In the event both current leaders remain in place, this will be the first election in the Northern Territory where both major political parties are led by women, and the third in any Australian state or territory after the 1995 ACT election and 2020 Queensland election.

Previous election

At the 2020 election, the Labor government led by Chief Minister Michael Gunner was re-elected with a reduced majority, winning 14 of the 25 seats in the parliament. The Country Liberals (CLP) won 8 seats, whilst the Territory Alliance party won 1 seat and a further 2 seats were won by independents.

Parliamentary composition

Robyn Lambley, the Territory Alliance's sole representative in the parliament, left the party in October 2020 to sit as an independent.[2] Labor MLA Mark Turner was expelled from the party-room caucus in February 2021 due to what he acknowledged as an "inappropriate relationship" with a Labor Party staffer, though he remained a Labor-designated member in the assembly.[3]

A by-election was held for the seat of Daly on 11 September 2021, caused by the resignation of CLP member Ian Sloan due to health and personal issues. Labor candidate Dheran Young won the seat, the first time that an incumbent government has won a seat from the opposition in the history of the Legislative Assembly.[4]

On 10 May 2022, Chief Minister and Labor leader Michael Gunner announced his immediate resignation from both positions, citing his desire to spend more time with his family following the birth of his and his wife's second son on 29 April.[5] Following a party-room meeting on 13 May, Labor minister Natasha Fyles was elected unopposed to the leadership, and was sworn in as the new Chief Minister later day.[6] Gunner resigned from the seat of Fannie Bay on 27 July and a by-election was held on 20 August 2022. Labor retained the seat at the by-election, with candidate Brent Potter victorious despite recording a 7 per cent swing against the party.[7]

On 17 December 2022, Labor MP for Arafura Lawrence Costa died. This triggered a by-election which was held on 18 March 2023. Manuel Brown retained the seat for Labor with a 15.6% swing towards the party on the two-party-preferred result.

In December 2023, it was revealed that Fyles holds 754 undeclared shares in South32, a company that owns a manganese mine on Groote Eylandt. Fyles faced further conflict of interest allegations and calls to resign, due to Fyles' decision earlier in 2023 to not investigate health impacts from the Groote Eylandt mine, with Leader of the Opposition Lia Finocchiaro calling her actions a 'profound betrayal of public trust'.[8][9] As a result of the controversy, Fyles resigned on 19 December 2023.[9]

The Northern Territory Legislative Assembly has four independents all of which are in reasonably marginal seats, this increased by one followimg the removal of Mark Turner from the Labor caucus.

Redistribution

A map showing the first proposal of redistribution.

The first redistribution proposal was published on 23 May 2023.[10]

Election date

The parliament has fixed four-year terms, with elections to be held on the fourth Saturday of August every four years.[11]

Pre-election pendulum

Government seats (14)
Marginal
Arnhem Selena Uibo ALP 1.6 v IND
Port Darwin Paul Kirby ALP 2.1
Fannie Bay Brent Potter[lower-alpha 3] ALP 2.2[lower-alpha 4]
Fong Lim Mark Monaghan ALP 2.6
Fairly safe
Daly Dheran Young[lower-alpha 5] ALP 7.3 [lower-alpha 6]
Drysdale Eva Lawler ALP 7.9
Karama Ngaree Ah Kit ALP 9.8
Safe
Casuarina Lauren Moss ALP 15.9
Gwoja Chansey Paech ALP 16.2
Johnston Joel Bowden ALP 16.5
Wanguri Nicole Manison ALP 17.3
Very safe
Arafura Manuel Brown[lower-alpha 7] ALP 19.1[lower-alpha 8]
Sanderson Kate Worden ALP 19.3
Nightcliff Natasha Fyles ALP 24.3
Opposition seats (7)
Marginal
Barkly Steve Edgington CLP 0.1
Namatjira Bill Yan CLP 0.3
Brennan Marie-Clare Boothby CLP 1.2
Braitling Joshua Burgoyne CLP 1.3
Katherine Jo Hersey CLP 2.3
Fairly safe
Nelson Gerard Maley CLP 8.3 v IND
Safe
Spillett Lia Finocchiaro CLP 15.0
Crossbench seats (4)
Blain Mark Turner IND[lower-alpha 9] 0.2 (ALP v CLP)
Araluen Robyn Lambley IND 0.5 v CLP
Mulka Yingiya Mark Guyula IND 5.0 v ALP
Goyder Kezia Purick IND 6.8 v CLP

Registered parties

Six parties are currently registered with the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (NTEC).[12]

Candidates

Finocchiaro announced the first CLP candidates in May 2023.[13]

Electorate Held by Labor candidate CLP candidate Greens candidate Federation candidate Other candidates
 
ArafuraLabor
AraluenIndependent
ArnhemLabor
BarklyCLP
BlainIndependentMatthew Kerle
BraitlingCLP
BrennanCLP
CasuarinaLabor
DalyLaborKris Civitarese[13]
DrysdaleLaborClinton Howe
Fannie BayLabor
Fong LimLabor
GoyderIndependent
GwojaLabor
JohnstonLabor
KaramaLabor
KatherineCLP
MulkaIndependent
NamatjiraCLPBill Yan[13]
NelsonCLP
NightcliffLabor
Port DarwinLabor
SandersonLabor
SpillettCLPLia Finocchiaro[13]
WanguriLabor

Opinion polling

Voting intention

Date Firm Primary vote TPP[lower-alpha 10]
ALP CLP Ind OTH ALP CLP
16–18 November 2023 Redbridge[15] 19.7% 40.6% 14% 24.8%[lower-alpha 11] 43.5% 56.5%
2020 election 39.4% 31.3% 10.7% 18.6% 53.3% 46.7%

Notes

  1. ↑ On 18 February 2021, Mark Turner, the member for Blain, was expelled from the Labor Party caucus but remained a rank-and-file member of the party, although he sits on the crossbench, bringing Labor's seat total to thirteen. However, Labor won the seat of Daly from the Country Liberal Party at the 2021 Daly by-election on 11 September 2021, bringing their seat total back to fourteen. Turner was later expelled from the party completely.[1]
  2. ↑ The Country Liberal Party lost the electorate of Daly to Labor at a by-election in 2021.
  3. ↑ Brent Potter was elected at the 2022 Fannie Bay by-election after the resignation of former Chief Minister Michael Gunner
  4. ↑ The margin after the 2022 Fannie Bay by-election is 2.2%. The 2020 election margin was 9.6%
  5. ↑ Dheran Young was elected at the 2021 Daly by-election after the resignation of Ian Sloan
  6. ↑ The margin after the 2021 Daly by-election is 7.3% The 2020 election margin was 1.2% for the Country Liberal Party
  7. ↑ Manuel Brown was elected at the 2023 Arafura by-election after the death of Lawrence Costa
  8. ↑ The margin after the 2023 Arafura by-election is 19.1%. The 2020 election margin was 3.6%.
  9. ↑ Mark Turner was expelled from the Labor Party caucus in 2021 and from the party completely in 2023.[1]
  10. ↑ The TPP estimates have been manually calculated based on preference flows.[14]
  11. ↑ NT Greens 13.1%, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party 9.4% Animal Justice Party 2.4%,

References

  1. 1 2 "NT politician Mark Turner expelled from Labor Party". ABC News. 8 June 2023.
  2. ↑ James, Felicity (21 October 2020). "Territory Alliance party ousts Robyn Lambley, leaving it with no seats in Parliament". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 27 October 2020.
  3. ↑ Jane Gibson (18 February 2021). "Blain MLA Mark Turner exiled from NT Labor caucus as staffer resigns over scandal". ABC News.
  4. ↑ "Results - 2021 Division of Daly - by-election". Northern Territory Electoral Commission. 24 September 2021. Archived from the original on 27 February 2022. Retrieved 27 February 2022.
  5. ↑ "Northern Territory Chief Minister Michael Gunner to resign". ABC News. 10 May 2022. Retrieved 10 May 2022.
  6. ↑ "Natasha Fyles sworn in as Northern Territory Chief Minister, replacing Michael Gunner". ABC News. 13 May 2022.
  7. ↑ "VIDEO: Labor's Brent Potter wins Fannie Bay by-election". ABC News. 22 August 2022.
  8. ↑ "NT chief minister Natasha Fyles under pressure to resign over alleged undisclosed shares worth $2,000". The Guardian. Australian Associated Press. 19 December 2023. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 19 December 2023.
  9. 1 2 "Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles resigns amid mounting pressure over leadership". ABC News. 19 December 2023. Retrieved 19 December 2023.
  10. ↑ "Northern Territory Election Commission". Archived from the original on 10 June 2023. Retrieved 10 June 2023.
  11. ↑ "So when is the next election?". Aph.gov.au. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  12. ↑ "Register of political parties in the Northern Territory" (PDF). NT Electoral Commission. 28 February 2023. Retrieved 21 May 2023.
  13. 1 2 3 4 Finocchiaro, Lia (10 May 2023). "Budget in Reply".
  14. ↑ https://armariuminterreta.com/projects/australian-2pp-estimator-2025/
  15. ↑ "Northern Territory Social Services" (PDF). Redbridge Group. Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 November 2023. Retrieved 29 November 2023.
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