2024 Queensland state election
26 October 2024
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
47 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Steven Miles David Crisafulli Robbie Katter
Party Labor Liberal National Katter's Australian
Leader since 15 December 2023 12 November 2020 2 February 2015
Leader's seat Murrumba Broadwater Traeger
Last election 52 seats, 39.57% 34 seats, 35.89% 3 seats, 2.48%
Current seats 52 seats 34 seats 3 seats
Seats needed Steady Increase 13 Increase 44
 
ON
Leader No leader No leader
Party Greens One Nation
Last election 2 seats, 9.47% 1 seat, 7.12%
Current seats 2 seats 1 seat
Seats needed Increase 45 Increase 46
Incumbent Premier

Steven Miles
Labor


The 2024 Queensland state election is scheduled to be held on 26 October 2024 to elect all members to the Legislative Assembly of Queensland pursuant to the Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015. As a result of the 2016 Queensland term length referendum, the term of the parliament will run for four years.[1][2]

The Labor government will attempt to win a fourth term against the Liberal National opposition, currently led by David Crisafulli. On 10 December 2023, Annastacia Palaszczuk announced her resignation after more than eight years in government, prompting a leadership election to elect a new leader and subsequently Premier.[3]

Electoral system

Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for single-member electorates. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ). The party or coalition that wins the majority of seats (at least 47) will form the government. If no majority emerges then the party or coalition that is able to command the confidence of the Legislative Assembly will form government.

The party or coalition that wins the second highest number of seats forms the opposition, with the remaining parties and independents candidates being allocated to the cross bench.

The Queensland Parliament is the only unicameral state parliament in Australia, composed of the Legislative Assembly. The upper house, the Queensland Legislative Council was abolished in 1922.

Key dates

The election will be for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following the 2020 election held every four years on the last Saturday of October.[4] The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.

Candidates

Crisafulli began announcing LNP candidates 18 months prior to the election, making the LNP the first party to formally endorse candidates for the election.[5] The LNP announced several other candidates afterwards. The second party to formally endorse a candidate was Katter's Australian Party (KAP), announcing their candidate for the Far North Queensland seat of Cook on 6 October 2023.[6]

Retiring members

Labor

Liberal National

Electoral pendulum

This is a pre-election pendulum for the 2024 Queensland state election. Members in italics will not contest the election. By-elections were held in two seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.

Government seats
Marginal
Bundaberg Tom Smith ALP 0.01
Nicklin Robert Skelton ALP 0.1
Hervey Bay Adrian Tantari ALP 2.0
Caloundra Jason Hunt ALP 2.5
Barron River Craig Crawford ALP 3.1
Townsville Scott Stewart ALP 3.1
Thuringowa Aaron Harper ALP 3.2
Redlands Kim Richards ALP 3.9
Mundingburra Les Walker ALP 3.9
Aspley Bart Mellish ALP 5.2
Pumicestone Ali King ALP 5.3
Cairns Michael Healy ALP 5.6
Keppel Brittany Lauga ALP 5.6
Fairly safe
Redcliffe Yvette D'Ath ALP 6.1
Cook Cynthia Lui ALP 6.3
Mackay Julieanne Gilbert ALP 6.7
Pine Rivers Nikki Boyd ALP 6.7
Mansfield Corrine McMillan ALP 6.8
Gaven Meaghan Scanlon ALP 7.8
Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP 8.3
Rockhampton Barry O'Rourke ALP 8.6
Macalister Melissa McMahon ALP 9.5
Capalaba Don Brown ALP 9.9
Safe
Cooper Jonty Bush ALP 10.5
Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP 11.0
McConnel Grace Grace ALP 11.1
Murrumba Steven Miles ALP 11.3
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP 11.4
Maryborough Bruce Saunders ALP 11.9
Stafford Jimmy Sullivan ALP 11.9
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP 12.2
Mount Ommaney Jess Pugh ALP 12.6
Bancroft Chris Whiting ALP 12.8
Kurwongbah Shane King ALP 13.1
Greenslopes Joe Kelly ALP 13.2
Logan Linus Power ALP 13.4
Lytton Joan Pease ALP 13.4
Miller Mark Bailey ALP 13.8
Stretton James Martin ALP 13.9 [lower-roman 1]
Ipswich West Jim Madden ALP 14.3
Toohey Peter Russo ALP 14.4
Nudgee Leanne Linard ALP 15.1
Waterford Shannon Fentiman ALP 16.0
Ipswich Jennifer Howard ALP 16.5
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP 16.7
Jordan Charis Mullen ALP 17.1
Sandgate Stirling Hinchliffe ALP 17.3
Algester Leeanne Enoch ALP 17.8
Bundamba Lance McCallum ALP v ONP 20.7
Gladstone Glenn Butcher ALP 23.5
Woodridge Cameron Dick ALP 26.2
Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP 28.2
Non-government seats
Marginal
Currumbin Laura Gerber LNP 0.5
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP 1.1
Burleigh Michael Hart LNP 1.2
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP 1.3
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP 1.6
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP 1.6
Everton Tim Mander LNP 2.2
Whitsunday Amanda Camm LNP 3.3
Theodore Mark Boothman LNP 3.3
Moggill Christian Rowan LNP 3.6
Ninderry Dan Purdie LNP 4.1
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP 4.4
Oodgeroo Mark Robinson LNP 4.5
Buderim Brent Mickelberg LNP 5.3
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP 5.4
Fairly safe
Burdekin Dale Last LNP 7.0
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP 7.3
Gympie Tony Perrett LNP 8.5
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP 9.1
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP 9.3
Safe
Bonney Sam O'Connor LNP 10.1
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP 10.1
Toowoomba South David Janetzki LNP 10.2
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP 10.8
Scenic Rim Jon Krause LNP 11.4
Lockyer Jim McDonald LNP 11.5
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP 12.2
Southern Downs James Lister LNP 14.1
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP 16.2
Broadwater David Crisafulli LNP 16.6
Gregory Lachlan Millar LNP 17.2
Condamine Pat Weir LNP 19.2
Callide Bryson Head LNP 21.7 [lower-roman 2]
Warrego Ann Leahy LNP 23.1
Crossbench seats
South Brisbane Amy MacMahon GRN v ALP 5.3
Maiwar Michael Berkman GRN v LNP 6.3
Mirani Stephen Andrew ONP v ALP 9.0
Hinchinbrook Nick Dametto KAP v LNP 14.8
Noosa Sandy Bolton IND v LNP 15.8
Hill Shane Knuth KAP v ALP 22.5
Traeger Robbie Katter KAP v ALP 24.7
Notes
  1. ↑ In 2021 there was a by-election after the death of Duncan Pegg. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
  2. ↑ In 2022 there was a by-election after Colin Boyce was elected to the seat of Flynn in the 2022 Australian Federal Election. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.

Opinion polling

Primary vote polling.

References

  1. ↑ The Queensland Electoral System Queensland Parliament
  2. ↑ Queensland referendum: Vote on four-year parliamentary terms passes ABC News 5 April 2016
  3. ↑ Remeikis, Amy (10 December 2023). "Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk retires from politics". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 10 December 2023.
  4. ↑ "Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015" (PDF). www.legislation.qld.gov.au.
  5. ↑ Cosoleto, Tara (26 March 2023). "LNP names candidates 18 months out from Queensland poll". Brisbane Times. AAP. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  6. ↑ McCarthy, Isaac (6 October 2023). "Katters announce Malanda man, ex-SAS soldier Bruce Logan as Cook candidate". Cairns Post. Retrieved 19 October 2023.
  7. ↑ Dennien, Matt (18 April 2023). "Labor MP to retire from politics amid bullying and quota cloud". Brisbane Times. Retrieved 22 April 2023.
  8. ↑ Madden, Jim (18 April 2023). Personal Explanation – Member for Ipswich West (PDF) (Speech). Parliament House, Brisbane: Queensland Parliament. Retrieved 22 April 2023.
  9. ↑ Elks, Sarah (11 October 2023). "Stirling Hinchliffe calls it quits after 17 years to 'put family first'". The Australian. Retrieved 15 October 2023.
  10. ↑ Johnson, Hayden (13 November 2023). "Premier to lose another Labor MP at 2024 poll". The Courier-Mail. Retrieved 14 November 2023.
  11. ↑ McCormack, Madura (16 June 2023). "Oodgeroo MP Mark Robinson confirms retirement at next election, paving way for Amanda Stoker's political comeback". Courier Mail. Retrieved 12 September 2023.
  12. ↑ McCormack, Madura (6 September 2023). "LNP MP for Burleigh Michael Hart won't recontest 2024 state election". Courier Mail. Retrieved 12 September 2023.
  13. ↑ Gall, Sally (18 October 2023). "Gregory MP calls time on representing largest electorate in Queensland". Queensland Country Life. Retrieved 21 October 2023.
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