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The 2024 Arizona Republican presidential primary will be held on March 19, 2024, as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 43 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention will be allocated on a winner-take-all basis.[1] The contest will be held alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, Kansas, and Ohio.
Background
In the 2016 Republican presidential contest, Donald Trump won the Arizona primary with 46.0% of the vote, with his nearest opponent, Senator Ted Cruz, taking 27.6% of the vote. In the 2020 primaries, the Arizona Republican Party canceled their contest.[2]
Candidates
The filing deadline was December 11, 2023.[3] The following candidates filed:[4]
- Ryan Binkley
- John Anthony Castro
- Chris Christie
- Ron DeSantis
- Nikki Haley
- Asa Hutchinson
- Vivek Ramaswamy
- David Stuckenberg
- Donald Trump
Endorsements
Ron DeSantis
- Former federal executive official
- Don Tapia, U.S. Ambassador to Jamaica (2019–2021)[5]
- Former U.S. Representative
- Matt Salmon, AZ-05 (2013–2017) and AZ-01 (1995–2001)[6]
- State senators
- T.J. Shope, District 16 (2023–present) and District 8 (2021–2023); President Pro Tempore (2023–present); House Speaker Pro Tempore (2017–2021)[7]
- Ken Bennett, District 1 (1999–2007 and 2023–present); Arizona Secretary of State (2009–2015); President (2003–2007)[7]
- Steve Kaiser, District 2 (2023–present)[7]
- J.D. Mesnard, District 13 (2023–present) and District 17 (2019–2023); House Speaker (2017–2019)[7]
- Frank Carroll, District 28 (2023–present)[7]
- State representatives
- Ben Toma, District 27 (2023–present) and District 22 (2017–2023); Speaker (2023–present); Majority Leader (2021–2023)[7]
- Teresa Martinez, District 16 (2023–present) and District 11 (2021–2023); Majority Whip (2023–present)[7]
- Justin Wilmeth, District 2 (2023–present) and District 15 (2021–2023)[7]
- David Cook, District 7 (2023–present) and District 8 (2017–2023)[7]
- Lupe Diaz, District 19 (2023–present) and District 14 (2021–2023)[7]
- Kevin Payne, District 27 (2023–present) and District 21 (2017–2023)[7]
- Beverly Pingerelli, District 28 (2023–present) and District 21 (2021–2023)[7]
- County official
- Jonathan Lines, Yuma County Supervisor from District 2 (2021–present); Chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2017–2019)[7]
- Notable individual
- Jim Lamon, founder of DEFCOM Power, Inc. and Republican candidate for U.S. Senator from Arizona in 2022[8]
Donald Trump
- U.S. Representatives
- Andy Biggs, AZ-05 (2017–present)[9]
- Eli Crane, AZ-02 (2023–present)[10]
- Paul Gosar, AZ-09 (2011–present)[10]
- Debbie Lesko, AZ-08 (2018–present)[11]
- State senators
- Anthony Kern, Member of the Arizona Senate from the 27th District (2023–present)[12]
- Wendy Rogers, District 7 (2023–present) and 6th district (2021–2023)[13]
- Justine Wadsack, District 17 (2023–present)[14]
- State representatives
- Mark Finchem, District 11 (2015–2023); Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona Secretary of State election[15]
- Rachel Jones, District 17 (2023–present)[14]
- Cody McGarr, District 17 (2023–present)[14]
- Austin Smith, Member of the Arizona House of Representatives from the 29th district (2023–present)[16]
- Former county official
- Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County Sheriff (1993–2017)[17]
- Notable individuals
- Kari Lake, news anchor; Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election[18]
- Blake Masters, venture capitalist and the Republican nominee for U.S. Senator from Arizona in 2022[19]
Declined to endorse
- U.S. Representative
- David Schweikert, AZ-01 (2023–present), AZ-06 (2013–2021), AZ-05 (2011–2013)[20]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Chris Christie |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Asa Hutchinson |
Mike Pence |
Vivek Ramaswamy |
Tim Scott |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 348 (RV) | ± 5.25% | 2% | 16% | 8% | 0% | 3% | 9% | 1% | 53% | 7%[lower-alpha 2] | – |
| – | 32% | – | – | – | – | – | 68% | – | – | ||||
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 663 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 6% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 58% | 11%[lower-alpha 3] | 1% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 346 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 2% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 5% | 9% | 2% | 50% | 7%[lower-alpha 4] | – |
| – | 38% | – | – | – | – | – | 62% | – | – | ||||
| J.L. Partners | Apr 10–12, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | – | 24% | 3% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 47% | 8%[lower-alpha 5] | 11% |
| – | 35% | – | – | – | – | – | 52% | – | 13% | ||||
| Noble Predictive Insights | Apr 4–11, 2023 | 371 (RV) | ± 5.1% | – | 21% | 4% | – | 7% | – | 0% | 49% | 20%[lower-alpha 6] | – |
| – | 41% | – | – | – | – | – | 59% | – | – | ||||
| Rasmussen Reports | Mar 13–14, 2023 | – | – | – | 24% | – | – | – | – | – | 52% | – | 24% |
| OH Predictive Insights | Jan 31 – Feb 9, 2023 | 350 (RV) | ± 5.2% | 1% | 26% | 5% | – | 8% | – | – | 42% | 11%[lower-alpha 7] | 7% |
| Blueprint Polling | Jan 5–8, 2023 | 303 (V) | – | – | 34% | – | – | – | – | – | 43% | – | 23% |
| Echelon Insights | Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2022 | 337 (LV) | ± 4.5% | – | 36% | – | – | – | – | – | 53% | – | 11% |
| OH Predictive Insights | Nov 1–8, 2021 | 252 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 1% | 16% | 6% | – | 9% | – | – | 48% | 9%[lower-alpha 8] | 9% |
| 0% | 29% | 8% | – | 21% | – | – | – | 25%[lower-alpha 9] | 16% |
See also
Notes
- ↑ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ↑ "Someone else not listed" & "None of these candidates" with 2%; Doug Burgum with 1%; Ryan Binkley, Larry Elder, Will Hurd, Perry Johnson & Francis Suarez with 0%
- ↑ Doug Burgum and Will Hurd with 1%; Francis Suarez and Perry Johnson with 0%; "Someone else" with 9%
- ↑ Ryan Binkley, Doug Burgum, Francis Suarez, Larry Elder, Will Hurd, Perry Johnson, and "Someone Else not Listed" with 0%; "None of these Candidates" with 7%
- ↑ Liz Cheney with 4%; Mike Pompeo and Glenn Youngkin with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
- ↑ Liz Cheney with 4%; Marco Rubio with 3%; Mike Pompeo, Chris Sununu, and Larry Hogan with 1%; Glenn Youngkin with 0%; "Someone else" with 1%; "None of these Candidates" with 9%
- ↑ Liz Cheney with 5%; Ted Cruz with 3%; Mike Pompeo with 2%; Marco Rubio with 1%; Kristi Noem and Glenn Youngkin with 0%
- ↑ Ted Cruz and Mitt Romney with 3%; Marco Rubio with 2%; Liz Cheney with 1%
- ↑ Ted Cruz with 10%; Donald Trump Jr. with 8%; Mitt Romney with 4%; Marco Rubio with 2%; Liz Cheney with 1%
References
- ↑ "Arizona Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. January 19, 2023. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
- ↑ Stone, Kevin (September 9, 2019). "Arizona GOP won't hold 2020 presidential preference election". KTAR. Retrieved September 11, 2019.
- ↑ "Important dates in the 2024 presidential race". Ballotpedia. Retrieved December 12, 2023.
- ↑ "2024 Presidential Preference Election Filed Candidates" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved December 11, 2023.
- ↑ Isenstadt, Alex (February 21, 2023). "Republican 2024 rivals go shopping for big donors". Politico. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
- ↑ Bade, Rachael; Irvine, Bethany (March 6, 2023). "From loner to phenom: DeSantis' old colleagues are surprised at his rise". Politico. Retrieved March 6, 2023.
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 McCormick, John. "How Nikki Haley Went From Tea-Party Favorite to Governor to Trump 2024 Challenger". WSJ. Retrieved February 15, 2023.
- ↑ Palmer, Ewan (July 20, 2023). "Arizona Republican Jim Lamon Turns on Trump, Bankrolls Campaign to Stop Him". Newsweek. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
- ↑ Astor, Maggie (November 16, 2022). "Republican reaction to Trump: A few endorsements, and a lot of crickets". The New York Times. The Seattle Times. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
- 1 2 Ballasy, Nicholas (December 1, 2022). "Trump picks up early 2024 endorsements from GOP lawmakers, other political figures". Just The News. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
- ↑ "Which 2024 Republican Presidential Candidate Has The Most Endorsements?". FiveThirtyEight. April 24, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
- ↑ Murdock, Corinne (August 16, 2023). "Arizona Politicians React To Trump's Indictment". AZ Free News. Retrieved September 23, 2023.
- ↑ Pesce, Nicole Lyn (November 15, 2022). "Cheers and jeers from Republicans as Trump announces 2024 presidential bid". MarketWatch. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
- 1 2 3 Poling, Hannah (July 21, 2023). "Arizona Legislative District 17's Freedom Team Endorses Donald Trump for President". Arizona Sun Times. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
- ↑ "Arizona election 2022: Finchem won't acknowledge loss in secretary of state race". azcentral. November 16, 2022. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
- ↑ "Smith: 'It's about what they've done to half the country by extension'". Coconino News. August 2, 2023. Retrieved October 14, 2023.
- ↑ "I hope Trump runs, he's my hero | Sheriff Joe Arpaio | American Agenda". Headtopics. November 11, 2022. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
- ↑ Jones, Dustin (November 15, 2022). "What lawmakers are saying about Trump's run for the presidency". NPR. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
- ↑ Baizal-Emil, Eric (October 26, 2023). "Blake Masters announces House bid in Arizona, forgoing another run for Senate". Politico. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
- ↑ Mutnick, Ally; Ferris, Sarah (March 2, 2023). "Trump's loosening grip on GOP defines early 2024 campaign". Politico. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
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