Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations. This article concerns well over 240 polls carried out since the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Polling conducted before the referendum can be found here. Polls listed here, except as noted, are by members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The main table includes primarily those polls which ask the same question as the 2014 referendum: "Should Scotland be an Independent Country?". Other tables reflect different questions on independence, which may produce different results. Any factors that might impact the poll result, such as excluding 16 and 17-year-old voters, are recorded in the 'Notes' column. The table also lists some events that may have impacted on polls including Brexit, COVID-19 and party leadership changes.

Polls in the main table, using the same question, still show systematic differences between different polling organisations. Therefore to discern trends it is helpful to compare a poll with previous results from same pollster.

Graphical summary

Graph Methodology

The graphs include all polls from the main table, excluding those which are noted as using non-standard questions.

The date associated with each poll is the mid-point of the survey period, i.e (start+end)/2.

The centered moving averages are the averages of the last 10 polls, weighted by sample size. The date of the moving average is the weighted average poll date. The value of the moving average is variously the percentage for Yes, No, Undecided and the margin ex-undecideds of those polls.

The margin ex-undecideds value for each poll is calculated as (No-Yes)/(No+Yes).

The final chart is the distribution of a given organisations polls compared to the moving average margin ex-undecideds. The value of the moving average at the poll's date is computed by linear interpolation between adjacent values of the moving average. The difference between that value and the poll's value is shown as a distribution.

Frequently time axis dates may be in the future for long-term graphs. This is done to avoid truncation of datapoints at the edge of the chart area.


Polls using the 2014 referendum question

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Should Scotland be an independent country? Lead Notes
YesNoUndecided
9-11 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton 1,040 46% 47% 7% 1%
26–27 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,054 46% 48% 6% 2%
20–26 Nov 2023 Ipsos Scotland 1,000 51% 43% 5% 8%
29–30 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,092 45% 50% 5% 5%
20–25 Oct 2023 YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) 1,244 38% 46% 11% 8%
6–18 Oct 2023 Focaldata/Scotland in Union 1,037 40% 48% 9% 8%
6–11 Oct 2023 Savanta/The Scotsman 1,002 45% 47% 8% 2%
2–5 Oct 2023 Panelbase 1,022 45% 49% 6% 4%
4–5 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,095 46% 48% 6% 2%
5–14 Sep 2023 Opinium/Tony Blair Institute 1,004 45% 41% 9% 4% [lower-alpha 1]
8–12 Sep 2023 YouGov 1,103 39% 44% 14% 5%
5–11 Sep 2023 Find Out Now/Independent Voices 1,402 44% 44% 9% Tied [lower-alpha 2]
2–4 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,100 44% 49% 6% 5%
15–18 Aug 2023 Survation 1,002 43% 47% 10% 4%
3–8 Aug 2023 YouGov 1,086 42% 44% 8% 2%
5–6 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,050 45% 48% 7% 3%
1–2 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,030 45% 49% 6% 4%
26–29 Jun 2023 Yougov 1,100 37% 46% 9% 9%
23–28 Jun 2023 Survation 1,915 42% 47% 10% 5%
13–20 Jun 2023 Find Out Now/Independent Voices 1,035 48% 45% 7% 3% [lower-alpha 3]
12–15 Jun 2023 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,007 44% 50% 6% 6%
9–14 Jun 2023 Savanta/The Scotsman 1,018 46% 47% 7% 1%
9–13 Jun 2023 YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) 1,244 36% 46% 11% 10%
7–12 Jun 2023 Find Out Now/Alba Party 558 43% 39% 11% 4% [lower-alpha 4][lower-alpha 5]
3–5 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,466 43% 50% 7% 7%
15–21 May 2023 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,100 51% 45% 4% 6%
27 Apr–3 May 2023 Survation/True North 1,009 44% 47% 9% 3%
30 Apr–2 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,244 42% 52% 6% 10%
17–20 Apr 2023 YouGov/ The Times 1,032 39% 45% 9% 6%
29 Mar–3 Apr 2023 Survation 1,007 42% 47% 10% 5%
31 Mar–1 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,000 44% 50% 6% 6%
28–31 Mar 2023 Savanta/Scotsman 1,009 45% 47% 8% 2%
28–30 Mar 2023 Panelbase/ The Sunday Times 1,089 46% 49% 5% 3%
27–29 Mar 2023Humza Yousaf becomes leader of the SNP and then First Minister of Scotland
9–13 Mar 2023 YouGov/Sky News 1,002 39% 47% 10% 8%
8–10 Mar 2023 Survation/DC Thomson 1,037 40% 48% 12% 8% [lower-alpha 6]
7–10 Mar 2023 Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop 1,013 45% 49% 5% 4%
1–9 Mar 2023 Find Out Now/Scot Goes Pop 1,266 50% 46% 4% 4%
2–5 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies[1] 1,050 42% 51% 8% 9%
22–23 Feb 2023 TechneUK 502 39% 47% 14% 8% [lower-alpha 7]
17–20 Feb 2023 YouGov/The Times 1,017 42% 49% 9% 7%
15–17 Feb 2023 Savanta/The Scotsman 1,004 44% 46% 9% 2%
15 Feb 2023Nicola Sturgeon announces her intention to resign as First Minister of Scotland
10–15 Feb 2023 YouGov/YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) 1,239 40% 48% 8% 8%
1–7 Feb 2023 Survation 1,070 44% 45% 11% 1%
6–13 Feb 2023 Panelbase/Believe in Scotland 2,006 44% 48% 8% 4%
26 Jan–3 Feb 2023 Lord Ashcroft 2,105 37% 48% 12% 11% [lower-alpha 8]
23–26 Jan 2023 YouGov/The Times 1,088 40% 46% 10% 6%
11–18 Jan 2023 FindOutNow/The National 1,094 52% 44% 3% 8%
17 Jan 2023 UK Government blocks Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill by invoking Section 35 of the Scotland Act 1998
10–12 Jan 2023 Survation/TrueNorth 1,002 41% 47% 11% 6%
16–21 Dec 2022 Savanta/The Scotsman 1,048 44% 46% 9% 2%
12–16 Dec 2022 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,004 49% 45% 6% 4%
6–9 Dec 2022 YouGov/The Times 1,090 47% 42% 8% 5%
1–8 Dec 2022 FindOutNow/Electoral Calculus 1,094 51% 43% 6% 8%
28 Nov–5 Dec 2022 Ipsos/STV 1,065 53% 42% 4% 11%
26–27 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,000 49% 45% 5% 4%
22–25 Nov 2022 YouGov/YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) 1,210 43% 42% 8% 1%
23 Nov 2022 Supreme Court rules the Scottish Parliament requires consent of the UK Government to legislate a second independence referendum
25 Oct 2022Rishi Sunak becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
20 Oct 2022Liz Truss announces her intention to resign as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
7–10 Oct 2022 Panelbase/Alba Party 1,018 46% 49% 5% 3%
5–7 Oct 2022 Panelbase/Business for Scotland 1,017 47% 47% 6% Tied
30 Sep–4 Oct 2022 YouGov/The Times 1,067 43% 45% 7% 2%
30 Sep–4 Oct 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,029 45% 46% 8% 1%
14–16 Sep 2022 Deltapoll/Sun in Scotland 659 42% 47% 7% 5% [lower-alpha 9]
8 Sep 2022 Elizabeth II dies and is succeeded by her son, Charles III
6 Sep 2022Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
17–19 Aug 2022 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,133 46% 48% 6% 2%
7 July 2022Boris Johnson announces his intention to resign as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
29 Jun–1 Jul 2022 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,010 48% 47% 5% 1%
29–30 Jun 2022 Techne UK 501 39% 45% 15% 6% [lower-alpha 10]
28 Jun 2022Nicola Sturgeon announces her intention to hold an independence referendum on 19 October 2023
23–28 Jun 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,029 44% 46% 10% 2%
23–29 May 2022 Ipsos/STV 1,000 45% 46% 8% 1%
18–23 May 2022 YouGov/The Times 1,115 38% 46% 11% 8%
5 May 20222022 Scottish local elections
26 Apr–3 May 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,010 45% 47% 7% 2%
26–29 Apr 2022 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,009 47% 49% 5% 2%
25–31 Mar 2022 BMG/Herald 1,012 43% 49% 8% 6%
25–31 Mar 2022 YouGov/TheseIslands 519 39% 44% 13% 5% [lower-alpha 11]
24–28 Mar 2022 Survation/Ballot Box Scotland 1,002 42% 47% 11% 5%
10–16 Mar 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,008 44% 49% 7% 5%
24–28 Feb 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Economist 1,651 45% 46% 9% 1%
24 Feb 20222022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
14–18 Jan 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,004 46% 46% 8% Tied
15–22 Dec 2021 Opinium/Daily Record 1,328 44% 44% 12% Tied [lower-alpha 12]
22–29 Nov 2021 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,107 52% 43% 4% 9%
18–22 Nov 2021 YouGov/The Times 1,060 40% 46% 14% 6%
9–12 Nov 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,781 45% 47% 8% 2%
22–28 Oct 2021 Savanta ComRes/Scotsman 1,005 45% 48% 7% 3%
20–26 Oct 2021 Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop 1,001 44% 50% 5% 6%
18 Sep 2021 Redfield & Wilton Strategies/Politico 1,000 44% 47% 9% 3%
6–10 Sep 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 2,003 45% 49% 6% 4%
3–9 Sep 2021 Savanta ComRes Sunday Times 1,016 45% 48% 7% 3%
1–8 Sep 2021 Stack Data Strategy/UKonward 1,007 45% 49% 6% 4%
3–8 Sep 2021 Opinium/Sky News 1,014 44% 43% 13% 1%
4–5 Aug 2021 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,000 44% 47% 9% 3%
16–24 Jun 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,287 45% 48% 7% 3%
11–14 May 2021 Savanta ComRes/Scotland on Sunday 1,003 43% 49% 8% 6%
7–8 May 2021 Stack Data/Our Scottish Future 1,000 48% 48% 4% Tied [lower-alpha 13]
6 May 20212021 Scottish Parliament election
30 Apr–4 May 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,001 42% 50% 8% 8%
2–4 May 2021 YouGov/The Times 1,144 41% 46% 13% 5%
30 Apr–4 May 2021 Survation/DC Thomson 1,008 43% 47% 10% 4%
28 Apr–3 May 2021 Opinium/Sky News 1,015 45% 45% 8% Tied
30 Apr–3 May 2021 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,502 47% 47% 6% Tied
28–30 Apr 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,096 48% 45% 6% 3%
27–30 Apr 2021 BMG/Herald 1,023 47% 47% 7% Tied
23–27 Apr 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,001 42% 49% 8% 7%
23–26 Apr 2021 Survation/Good Morning Britain 1,008 42% 47% 11% 5%
21–26 Apr 2021 Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop 1,075 47% 48% 6% 1%
21–23 Apr 2021 Survation/These Islands 1,006 44% 46% 10% 2%
20–22 Apr 2021 Survation/DC Thomson 1,037 44% 45% 11% 1%
16–20 Apr 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,001 44% 48% 8% 4%
16–20 Apr 2021 YouGov/The Times 1,204 39% 45% 16% 6%
7–19 Apr 2021 Lord Ashcroft 2,017 44% 45% 11% 1% [lower-alpha 8]
9–12 Apr 2021 Panelbase/Believe in Scotland 1,002 48% 46% 6% 2%
2–7 Apr 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,007 45% 45% 9% Tied
1–6 Apr 2021 Opinium/Sky News 1,023 47% 45% 6% 2%
29 Mar–4 Apr 2021 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,038 49% 45% 6% 4%
30 Mar–1 Apr 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,009 48% 47% 5% 1%
29–30 Mar 2021 Survation/DC Thomson 1,021 45% 44% 11% 1%
23–26 Mar 2021 Find Out Now/Daily Express 1,022 48% 44% 8% 4%
16–19 Mar 2021 BMG/Herald 1,021 49% 46% 5% 3%
11–18 Mar 2021 Survation/DC Thomson 2,047 43% 45% 12% 2%
11–16 Mar 2021 Opinium/Sky News 1,096 45% 43% 8% 2%
5–10 Mar 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,009 45% 47% 8% 2%
5–9 Mar 2021 Hanbury Strategy 1,502 50% 43% 8% 6%
4–8 Mar 2021 YouGov/The Times 1,100 41% 43% 14% 2%
4–5 Mar 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,015 43% 46% 10% 3% [lower-alpha 14]
3–5 Mar 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,013 46% 47% 7% 1%
26 Feb–4 Mar 2021 Savanta ComRes/Daily Express 1,004 43% 45% 12% 2%
12 Feb–1 Mar 2021 Hanbury Strategy 3,946 52% 41% 7% 11%
27 Feb 2021Anas Sarwar becomes leader of Scottish Labour
25–26 Feb 2021 Survation/Daily Record 1,011 43% 44% 13% 1%
18–22 Feb 2021 Savanta ComRes/ITV News 1,008 48% 44% 8% 4%
15–21 Feb 2021 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,031 48% 44% 7% 4%
4–9 Feb 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,002 43% 46% 11% 3% [lower-alpha 15]
19–22 Jan 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,206 49% 44% 7% 5%
14 Jan 2021Richard Leonard resigns as leader of Scottish Labour
11–13 Jan 2021 Survation/Scot Goes Pop 1,020 45% 43% 12% 2%
8–13 Jan 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,016 47% 43% 10% 4% [lower-alpha 15]
31 Dec 2020The post-Brexit transition period ends
11–15 Dec 2020 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,013 49% 39% 12% 10% [lower-alpha 15]
8 Dec 2020COVID-19 vaccination in the United Kingdom commences
2–7 Dec 2020 Survation 1,018 44% 42% 14% 2%
20–26 Nov 2020 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,00651%41%8%10%
5–11 Nov 2020 Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop 1,020 51% 40% 8% 11%
6–10 Nov 2020 YouGov 1,089 43% 42% 10% 1%
28 Oct–3 Nov 2020 Survation 1,071 47% 40% 13% 7%
2–9 Oct 2020 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,04552%39%9%13%
9 Oct 2020 Savanta ComRes 1,003 47% 42% 11% 5%
25 Sep–5 Oct 2020 Survation/Progress Scotland 2,09349%42%9%7%[lower-alpha 16]
17–21 Sep 2020 JL Partners 1,016 51% 40% 7% 11% [lower-alpha 17]
2–7 Sep 2020 Survation 1,018 46% 40% 13% 6%
12–18 Aug 2020 Panelbase/Business for Scotland 1,011 51% 42% 7% 9%
6–13 Aug 2020 Savanta ComRes 1,008 49% 42% 9% 7%
6–10 Aug 2020 YouGov/The Times 1,142 45% 40% 9% 5%
5 Aug 2020Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives
30 Jul 2020 Jackson Carlaw resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservatives
30 Jun–3 Jul 2020 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,026 50% 43% 7% 7%
15–19 Jun 2020 Panelbase/Business for Scotland 1,070 50% 43% 7% 7%
1–5 Jun 2020 Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop 1,022 48% 45% 8% 3%
1–5 May 2020 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,086 46% 46% 7% Tied
24–26 Mar 2020 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,023 46% 47% 7% 1%
1 March 2020 COVID-19 pandemic confirmed to have spread to Scotland
14 Feb 2020Jackson Carlaw becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives
7–14 Feb 2020 YouGov/Hanbury Strategy 2,58745%46%8%1%[lower-alpha 18][lower-alpha 19]
31 Jan 2020The United Kingdom leaves the European Union
28–31 Jan 2020 Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop 1,01649%46%6%3%
22–27 Jan 2020 YouGov 1,03943%42%10%1%
20–22 Jan 2020 Survation/Progress Scotland 1,01945%45%10%Tied
12 Dec 20192019 United Kingdom general election
10–11 Dec 2019 Survation/The Courier 1,01246%47%7%1%
3–6 Dec 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,02044%50%6%6%
3–6 Dec 2019 YouGov/The Times 1,00838%48%12%10%
19–25 Nov 2019 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,04648%48%4%Tied
20–22 Nov 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,00945%47%7%2%
9–11 Oct 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,00346%47%7%1%
30 Sep–9 Oct 2019 Survation/Progress Scotland 2,03240%51%9%11%[lower-alpha 20]
30 Aug–3 Sep 2019 YouGov/The Times 1,05943%44%13%1%
29 Aug 2019 Ruth Davidson resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservatives
30 Jul–2 Aug 2019 Lord Ashcroft 1,01946%43%12%3%[lower-alpha 8][lower-alpha 18]
24 Jul 2019 Boris Johnson becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
18–20 Jun 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,02446%48%6%2%
24 May 2019 Theresa May announces her resignation as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
23 May 20192019 European Parliament election
14–17 May 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,02145%49%6%4%
24–26 Apr 2019 YouGov/The Times 1,02944%45%11%1%
18–24 Apr 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,01844%49%7%5%
15–21 Mar 2019 Survation/Progress Scotland 2,04135%56%8%21%[lower-alpha 21]
30 Nov–5 Dec 2018 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,02845%51%4%6%
2–7 Nov 2018 Panelbase/Constitutional Commission 1,05043%52%5%9%
18–21 Oct 2018 Survation/Daily Record 1,01741%51%7%10%
3–5 Oct 2018 Survation/Scottish National Party 1,01341%49%8%8%
28 Sep–4 Oct 2018 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,02441%52%7%11%
28 Sep–2 Oct 2018 Survation/Sunday Post 1,03643%49%8%6%
24–29 Aug 2018 Deltapoll/OFOC & Best for Britain 1,02245%47%8%2%[lower-alpha 22]
5–10 Jul 2018 Survation/Daily Record 1,00241%47%12%6%[lower-alpha 18]
8–13 Jun 2018 Panelbase/Sunday Times1,02141%53%6%12%
1–5 Jun 2018 YouGov/The Times1,07541%50%6%9%
30 May–5 Jun 2018 YouGov/Future of England1,05241%47%12%6%[lower-alpha 23][lower-alpha 18]
23–28 Mar 2018 Panelbase/Sunday Times1,03741%53%6%12%
5–11 Mar 2018 Ipsos MORI/STV1,05046%50%4%4%[lower-alpha 18]
24–28 Jan 2018 Survation/Daily Record1,02942%50%8%8%
12–16 Jan 2018 YouGov/The Times1,00237%50%10%13%[lower-alpha 18]
1–5 Dec 2017 Survation/Sunday Post1,00642%49%8%7%
27–30 Nov 2017 Survation/Daily Record1,01742%48%10%6%
2–5 Oct 2017 YouGov/The Times1,13539%50%7%11%[lower-alpha 18]
8–12 Sep 2017Survation/Scottish Daily Mail1,01642%49%9%7%
31 Aug–7 Sep 2017Panelbase/Sunday Times1,02140%53%6%13%
9–13 Jun 2017Survation/Daily Record1,03739%53%7%14%
8 Jun 20172017 United Kingdom general election
6–7 Jun 2017Survation/Daily Record1,00136%56%7%20%
2–7 Jun 2017Panelbase/TheTimes1,10641%53%6%12%
1–5 Jun 2017YouGov/The Times1,09338%50%8%12%[lower-alpha 18]
31 May–2 Jun 2017Survation/Sunday Post1,02442%50%8%8%
22–27 May 2017Ipsos MORI/STV1,01645%51%3%6%[lower-alpha 18]
15–18 May 2017YouGov/The Times1,03239%49%8%10%[lower-alpha 18]
4 May 20172017 Scottish local elections
24–27 Apr 2017YouGov/The Times1,01740%49%8%9%[lower-alpha 18]
18–21 Apr 2017Panelbase/Sunday Times1,02943%52%5%9%
18–21 Apr 2017Survation/Sunday Post1,01843%48%9%5%[lower-alpha 18]
7–11 Apr 2017BMG/Herald1,04143%45%12%2%
29 Mar–11 Apr 2017Kantar1,06037%55%8%18%
13–17 Mar 2017Panelbase/Sunday Times1,00842%53%5%11%
9–14 Mar 2017YouGov/The Times1,02837%48%11%11%[lower-alpha 18]
8–13 Mar 2017Survation/Scottish Daily Mail1,01943%48%9%5%
13 Mar 2017 Nicola Sturgeon announces the intention to seek approval for a Section 30 order enabling an independence referendum
24 Feb–6 Mar 2017Ipsos MORI/STV1,02947%46%6%1%
23–27 Feb 2017BMG/Herald1,00941%44%15%3%
7–13 Feb 2017Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland1,02844%51%6%7%
26–31 Jan 2017BMG/Herald1,06743%45%10%2%
20–26 Jan 2017Panelbase/Sunday Times1,02043%51%7%8%
9–16 Dec 2016BMG/Herald1,00240%47%13%7%
29 Aug–16 Dec 2016YouGov3,16639%47%11%8%[lower-alpha 18]
24–29 Nov 2016YouGov/The Times1,13438%49%13%11%
9–15 Sep 2016Panelbase/Sunday Times1,02444%50%7%6%
5–11 Sep 2016Ipsos MORI/STV1,00045%50%5%5%
5–10 Sep 2016Survation1,07342%48%10%6%
10 Aug–4 Sep 2016TNS1,04741%47%12%6%
29–31 Aug 2016YouGov/The Times1,03940%46%13%6%[lower-alpha 18]
20–25 Jul 2016YouGov1,00540%45%14%5%[lower-alpha 18]
13 Jul 2016 Theresa May becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
24–28 Jun 2016Survation/Scottish Daily Mail1,05547%41%12%6%
25–26 Jun 2016Panelbase/Sunday Times62647%44%8%3%[lower-alpha 24]
25 Jun 2016Survation/Daily Record1,00248%41%9%7%
24 Jun 2016 David Cameron announces his resignation as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
23 Jun 20162016 EU membership referendum
5 May 20162016 Scottish Parliament election
2–4 May 2016YouGov/The Times1,44541%48%12%7%
23–28 Apr 2016Panelbase/Sunday Times1,07444%49%6%5%
15–20 Apr 2016Survation/Daily Record1,00544%47%9%3%
6–15 Apr 2016Panelbase/Sunday Times1,02145%51%5%6%
7–11 Apr 2016YouGov/The Times1,01241%49%10%8%
10–17 Mar 2016Survation/Daily Record1,05144%47%9%3%
7–9 Mar 2016YouGov/The Times1,07040%47%12%7%
25–29 Feb 2016Survation/Scottish Daily Mail1,02244%49%7%5%
11–16 Feb 2016Survation/Daily Record1,00642%48%9%6%
1–7 Feb 2016Ipsos MORI/STV1,00049%45%5%4%
1–4 Feb 2016YouGov/The Times1,02243%51%7%8%
8–14 Jan 2016Panelbase/Sunday Times1,05344%50%7%6%
8–12 Jan 2016Survation/Daily Record1,02945%47%8%2%
6–13 Nov 2015Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland1,07447%49%5%2%
9–13 Oct 2015YouGov/The Times1,02645%49%6%4%
7–10 Sep 2015Survation/Scottish Daily Mail1,01045%46%9%1%
7–10 Sep 2015YouGov/The Times1,11045%49%6%4%
4–10 Sep 2015Panelbase/Sunday Times1,00545%51%3%6%
12 Aug–1 Sep 2015TNS1,02347%42%11%5%
24–30 Aug 2015Ipsos MORI/STV1,00253%44%3%9%
3–7 Jul 2015Survation/Scottish Daily Mail1,08443%47%10%4%
26 Jun–3 Jul 2015Panelbase/SundayTimes1,00245%50%5%5%
19–21 May 2015YouGov/Sunday Post1,10844%49%7%5%
7 May 20152015 United Kingdom general election.
3–6 May 2015Survation/Daily Record1,66044%47%9%3%
29 Apr–1 May 2015YouGov/Sunday Times1,16243%49%8%6%
22–27 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Record1,01546%47%7%1%
20–23 Apr 2015Panelbase/Sunday Times1,04445%48%7%3%
8–9 Apr 2015YouGov/The Times1,05646%49%6%3%
13–19 Mar 2015ICM/Guardian1,00241%48%11%7%
12–17 Mar 2015Survation/Daily Record1,02745%43%11%2%
10–12 Mar 2015YouGov/The Times1,04945%48%8%3%
12–17 Feb 2015Survation/Daily Record1,01143%47%10%4%
29 Jan–2 Feb 2015YouGov/The Times1,00149%44%7%5%
9–11 Dec 2014Survation/Daily Record1,00148%48%4%Tied
9–11 Dec 2014YouGov/The Sun1,08148%45%6%3%
27 Nov 2014Release of Smith Commission report.
19 Nov 2014Nicola Sturgeon becomes First Minister of Scotland.
6–13 Nov 2014Survation/Daily Record1,00144%49%7%5%
30 Oct–5 Nov 2014Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland98246%45%8%1%
27–30 Oct 2014YouGov/The Times1,07849%45%6%4%
18 September 20142014 Scottish independence referendum results3,623,34444.7%55.3%10.6%

Other polling formats

Polls using Remain / Leave Question

Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum.

The use of this format has been criticised by pro-independence politicians. SNP depute leader Keith Brown said in September 2019 that it was "a deliberate bid to confuse independence with Brexit".

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom? Lead Notes
LeaveRemainUndecided
6-18 Oct 2023 Focaldata/These Islands 1,03733%55%13%22%
22 Dec-01 Jan 2023 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,02537%54%9%17%
28–29 Sep 2022 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,011 36% 51% 13% 15%
29 Apr–3 May 2022 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,05038%52%11%14%
25–31 Mar 2022 YouGov/These Islands 510 35% 50% 9% 15% [lower-alpha 25]
18–22 Nov 2021 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,04538%54%8%16%
31 Aug–1 Sep 2021 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,04039%52%9%13%
9–12 Mar 2021 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,01137%49%10%12%
10–12 Sep 2020 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,00837%47%11%10%
12–16 Sep 2019 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,00338%55%9%17%
18–23 Apr 2019 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,01236%56%7%20%
9–13 Nov 2018 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,01336%55%9%19%
28 Sep–4 Oct 2016BMG/Herald1,01039%47%15%8%
18 September 20142014 Scottish independence referendum results3,623,34444.7%55.3%10.6%

Polls on a "de facto" referendum

On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament.[2] Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the next UK general election as a de facto independence referendum. Question asked is stated in notes field.

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size SNP Grn Lab Con Lib Other Undecided Lead (overall lead) Notes
15–17 Feb 2023 Savanta/The Scotsman 1,004 36% — 29% 17% 5% 2% 10% 15% [lower-alpha 26]
11–18 Jan 2023 FindOutNow/The National 1,094 52% 2% 23% 12% 7% 4% — 12% [lower-alpha 27]
10-12 Jan 2023 Survation/True North 1,002 38% — 22% 16% 6% 2% 11% 6% [lower-alpha 28]
16-21 Dec 2022 Savanta/Scotsman 1,048 37% — 27% 18% 5% 2% 10% 13% [lower-alpha 29]
28 Nov–5 Dec 2022 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,065 53% 2% 24% 13% 6% 2% — 12% [lower-alpha 30]
Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Yes No Undecided Lead Notes
23 Nov 2022 Find Out Now/Channel 4 News 1,006 50% 33% 16% 17% [lower-alpha 31]

Scottish Social Attitudes Survey

Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence.

Respondents are asked Which of these statements comes closest to your view?

  1. Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union
  2. Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union
  3. Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers
  4. Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers
  5. Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament.

A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament".

YearPolling organisation/clientIndependenceDevolutionNo Parliament
2021Scottish Social Attitudes Survey52%38%8%
2019Scottish Social Attitudes Survey51%36%7%
2017Scottish Social Attitudes Survey45%41%8%
2016Scottish Social Attitudes Survey46%42%8%
2015Scottish Social Attitudes Survey39%49%6%
2014Scottish Social Attitudes Survey33%50%7%
2013Scottish Social Attitudes Survey29%55%9%
2012Scottish Social Attitudes Survey23%61%11%
2011Scottish Social Attitudes Survey32%58%6%
2010Scottish Social Attitudes Survey23%61%10%
2009Scottish Social Attitudes Survey28%56%8%
2007Scottish Social Attitudes Survey24%62%9%
2006Scottish Social Attitudes Survey30%54%14%
2005Scottish Social Attitudes Survey35%44%14%
2004Scottish Social Attitudes Survey32%45%17%
2003Scottish Social Attitudes Survey26%56%13%
2002Scottish Social Attitudes Survey30%52%13%
2001Scottish Social Attitudes Survey27%59%9%
2000Scottish Social Attitudes Survey30%55%12%
1999Scottish Social Attitudes Survey27%59%10%

Issues around a second independence referendum

Timing of a second referendum

Separate from the question of how Scots might vote in a hypothetical second referendum is the question of whether there should be a second referendum. Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. There is a wide variety of timeframes used on this topic

Date(s) conducted Polling organisation/client Sample size Pollsters have asked various questions re when/if next Independence might happen, they have used various timeframes as below. Lead Notes
In 2023 Next 12 Months Next 2 Years In the next 2–5 years More than 5 Years No Referendum
Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K
8 - 13 Sep 2023 YouGov 1,103 27% 62% 11% 45% 43% 12% [lower-alpha 32]
2 - 4 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,100 42% 42% 12% 42% 40% 14%
5 - 6 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,050 41% 40% 15% 44% 39% 13%
1 - 2 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,030 41% 40% 12% 41% 38% 14%
26 - 29 Jun 2023 YouGov 1,100 45% 42% 13% [lower-alpha 33]
3 - 5 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,466 42% 40% 13% 42% 39% 15%
30 Apr- 2 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1295 37% 47% 11% 39% 42% 14%
17-20 Apr 2023 YouGov/The Times 1,032 20% 69% 12% 44% 42% 14%
31 Mar-1 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,008 41% 44% 15% 43% 41% 16%
2-5 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,050 34% 49% 18% 37% 44% 20%
17–20 Feb 2023 YouGov/The Times 1,017 22% 68% 10% 45% 44% 11%
23-26 Jan 2023 YouGov/Sunday Times 1,088 28% 62% 10% 47% 42% 10%
26-27 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton 1,000 46% 43% 11% 46% 40% 14%
18–23 May 2022 YouGov/The Times 1,115 27% 60% 13% 21% 68% 11% 46% 41% 13%
26–29 Apr 2022 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,009 24% 31% 45% 10%
29–31 Mar 2022 YouGov/These Islands 1.029 36% 53% 12% 17%
18-22 Nov 2021 YouGov/Times 1,060 34% 50% 16% 28% 55% 17% 44% 41% 15%
9-12 Nov 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,781 19% 34% 46% 7%
22–28 Oct 2021 Savanta ComRes/Scotsman 1,005 14% 17% 17% 23% 23% 48% [lower-alpha 34]
18 Sep 2021 Redfield & Wilton 1,000 34% 50% 16% 41% 42% 17%
6-10 Sept 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 2,003 17% 36% 47% 6%
31 Aug–1 Sep 2021 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,040 38% 52% 9% 14%
4-5 Aug 2021 Redfield & Wilton 1,000 40% 47% 13% 42% 40% 17%
16-24 June 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,287 19% 35% 46% 8%
28-30 April 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,096 22% 33% 45% 10%
30 Mar-1 April 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,009 25% 29% 46% 7%
3-5 March 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,013 25% 30% 45% 10%

Scottish Government's authority to hold a referendum

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Should the Scottish Government, need to get permission from the UK Government to run a referendum on Scottish independence? Notes
ShouldShould NotUndecided
26-29 Jun 2023 Yougov 1,100 40% 50% 10%
17-20 Apr 2023 YouGov 1.032 39% 51% 10%
17-20 Feb 2023 YouGov 1,017 40% 51% 9%

UK-wide polling

Various companies have polled voters across the entire United Kingdom on various questions surrounding the issue of Scottish independence, from the standard Yes/No question as used in the 2014 referendum, to whether the Scottish government should be allowed to hold a second referendum. The results of these polls are displayed below.

Polls using 2014 referendum question

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Should Scotland be an independent country? Lead Notes
YesNoUndecided
22–23 Feb 2023 TechneUK 1,633 9% 71% 20% 62%
19-21 Jan 2023 DeltaPoll/Mail on Sunday 1,563 25% 40% 15% 15%
29-30 June 2022 Techne 1,614 10% 69% 21% 59%
18 Jun–2 Jul 2021 Panelbase/The Sunday Times 3,891 17% 54% 29% 37%

On the Scottish Government's authority to hold a referendum

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year? Lead Notes
YesNoUndecided/Dont Know
29–2 Dec 2022 Omnisis/Byline Times 1,189 42% 35% 23% 7% [lower-alpha 35]

Polling on a second referendum

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Should there be a Referendum on Scottish Independence? Lead Notes
YesNoUndecided/Dont Know
19-21 Jan 2023 Deltapoll/Mail On Sunday 1,563 29% 48% 28% 19% [lower-alpha 36]

Timing of a Second Independence Referendum

Date(s) conducted Polling organisation/client Sample size Pollsters have asked various questions re when/if next Independence might happen, they have used various timeframes as below. No Referendum Lead Notes
In 2023 Next 12 Months Next 2 Years In the next 2–5 years More than 5 Years
Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K
18/6 - 2/7/21 Panelbase/The Sunday Times 3891 18% 27% 55%

British Social Attitudes Survey

YearPolling organisation/clientIndependenceDevolutionNo Parliament
2021British Social Attitudes Survey25%54%15%
2020British Social Attitudes Survey24%54%14%
2017British Social Attitudes Survey22%55%15%
2015British Social Attitudes Survey23%49%20%
2013British Social Attitudes Survey20%49%18%
2012British Social Attitudes Survey25%43%23%
2011British Social Attitudes Survey26%44%19%
2007British Social Attitudes Survey19%48%18%
2003British Social Attitudes Survey17%58%13%
2002British Social Attitudes Survey19%52%15%
2001British Social Attitudes Survey19%60%11%
2000British Social Attitudes Survey19%52%17%
1999British Social Attitudes Survey21%57%14%
1997British Election Study14%55%23%

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  2. ↑ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  3. ↑ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  4. ↑ Findoutnow stated "This was not a standard indyref voting intention poll so was not adjusted for turnout likelihood. That's why undecideds are up, and others down" https://twitter.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1668263765937102849
  5. ↑ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  6. ↑ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  7. ↑ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. excludes 16 and 17 year-olds and did not ascertain likelihood to vote.
  8. 1 2 3 Lord Ashcroft is not a member of the British Polling Council
  9. ↑ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  10. ↑ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. excludes 16 and 17 year-olds and did not ascertain likelihood to vote.
  11. ↑ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  12. ↑ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds
  13. ↑ Results are limited to only those who state they will definitely vote. Those who are likely voters, don't know, or wouldn't vote are excluded.
  14. ↑ The voting intention was not weighted by likelihood to vote. Savanta ComRes said that the poll result "should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention".
  15. 1 2 3 Savanta ComRes revised their figures in three polls after a weighting error was discovered.
  16. ↑ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
  17. ↑ JL Partners was not a member of the British Polling Council at the time of this poll
  18. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds
  19. ↑ Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given.
  20. ↑ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
  21. ↑ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
  22. ↑ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland held tomorrow, how would you vote?" and given the options of "For Scotland to become an independent country" and "For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively.
  23. ↑ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "Do you agree that Scotland should become an independent country?" and given the options of "Yes" and "No".
  24. ↑ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  25. ↑ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  26. ↑ Question asked. "If the SNP did campaign on the next General Election as a 'de facto' second Scottish independence referendum, which of the following parties do you think you would vote for, or would you vote for another party?"
  27. ↑ Full question: Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP will fight the next General Election as a "de facto" referendum on independence. Which party will you vote for?
  28. ↑ Question Asked "Imagine the next Westminster Election was a de facto referendum on Scottish Independence If the Westminster Election was taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for?"
  29. ↑ Question asked. "If the SNP did campaign on the next General Election as a 'de facto' second Scottish independence referendum, which of the following parties do you think you would vote for, or would you vote for another party?"
  30. ↑ Question asked: "As you may know, the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Government's agreement. In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the next UK General Election as a "de facto" referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence. In this scenario, how would you vote in a General Election? /Which party are you most inclined to support?"
  31. ↑ Question asked: "Would you vote SNP at the next General Election if a victory for them could lead to Scotland leaving the UK?"
  32. ↑ The question asked was whether there should be a referendum in 2024
  33. ↑ The poll also asked whether there should be a referendum 'Soon after the next general election', to which the response was: Yes 35%, No 52%, Don't Know 13%
  34. ↑ Data in More than 5 years is amalgamation of 5 to 10 years and more than 10 years
  35. ↑ Question asked was "Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year?"
  36. ↑ Question asked was "In principle, do you think there should or should not be a referendum on Scottish independence?"

References

  1. ↑ Strategies, Redfield & Wilton (4 April 2023). "Scottish Independence Referendum & Westminster Voting Intention (31 March - 1 April 2023)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. Retrieved 16 April 2023.
  2. ↑ https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2022-0098-judgment.pdf
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.