Various polling organizations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2021 Canadian federal election. The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.

Constituency polls

Alberta

Banff—Airdrie

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Spadina StrategiesSeptember 14, 2021HTML12.943.711.71.39.813.16.7±5.23 pp350IVR

Calgary Skyview

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 20, 2021PDF37.635.412.82.61.31.19.2±5.6 pp303IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML28.352.514.91.61.21.5N/A±0.0 pp50,552Election

Edmonton Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 28, 2021PDF4026222136±5.6 pp303IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML33.041.520.62.61.50.8N/A±0.0 pp53,092Election

Edmonton Griesbach

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 12, 2021PDF19.038.428.21.73.93.75.1±4.6 pp454IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML17.351.425.12.52.31.4N/A±0.0 pp46,963Election

Edmonton Mill Woods

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 9, 2021PDF3735.414.41.46.91.63.3±5 pp299IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML33.650.312.11.81.80.4N/A±0.0 pp53,177Election

British Columbia

Burnaby North—Seymour

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 7, 2021PDF28.129.6265.22.30.97.9±5 pp379IVR
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 5, 2021HTML32.822.713.2N/AN/A6.225.1±4.1 pp558IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML35.519.532.39.62.21N/A±0.0 pp50,525Election

Cloverdale—Langley City

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 12, 2021PDF2840173732±5.6 pp307IVR

Delta

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 30, 2021PDF3436193314±5.6 pp304IVR

Nanaimo—Ladysmith

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Oracle PollSeptember 7, 2021HTML7.621.019.027.81.0N/A23.6±4.4 pp500Telephone
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML13.625.923.634.61.50.9N/A±0.0 pp53,296Election

Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 28, 2021PDF2633283226±5.6 pp306IVR

Port Moody—Coquitlam

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 13, 2021PDF24.429.029.53.68.92.02.7±5.5 pp320IVR

Surrey Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 4, 2021PDF3722226518±6.3 pp285IVR

Vancouver Granville

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 15, 2021PDF33251573215±5.9 pp280IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML26.621.913.15.10.832.6N/A±0.0 pp53,296Election

Vancouver South

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 15, 2021PDF3917254628±6.3 pp242IVR

West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 5, 2021PDF25.142.315.16.25.10.75.4±3.8 pp662IVR
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 5, 2021HTML23.127.519.411.9N/A414.1±3.9 pp624IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML34.926.713.922.41.60.5N/A±0.0 pp64,980Election

Manitoba

Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 20, 2021PDF36.237.010.81.83.01.49.8± pp317IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML35.540.714.24.74.30.7N/A±0.0 pp46,228Election

Kildonan—St. Paul

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 14, 2021PDF3330185717±5.5 pp322IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML27.944.821.24.01.20.9N/A±0.0 pp44,298Election

Winnipeg South

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 8, 2021PDF43.428.116.323.406.9±5 pp304IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML42.138.713.94.30.9N/AN/A±0.0 pp47,889Election

Newfoundland and Labrador

Bonavista—Burin—Trinity

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 9, 2021PDF43.230.510.50.63.4110.9±5 pp298IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML45.739.512.02.9N/AN/AN/A±0.0 pp32,179Election

St. John’s East

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 7, 2021PDF45.315.226.71.62.209±5.1 pp363IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML33.218.146.91.8N/AN/AN/A±0.0 pp42,940Election

New Brunswick

Fredericton

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 1, 2021PDF4031105365±5.6 pp307IVR

Saint John—Rothesay

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 1, 2021PDF4230132417±5.7 pp300IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML37.434.012.210.13.13.2N/A±0.0 pp42,940Election

Nova Scotia

Cape Breton—Canso

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 19, 2021PDF39.337.68.21.93.62.37.1±5 pp301IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML38.934.514.87.72.21.9N/A±0.0 pp42,940Election

Sydney—Victoria

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 7, 2021PDF42291333010±4.7 pp442IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML30.927.720.15.5N/A21.3N/A±0.0 pp40,565Election

West Nova

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 14, 2021PDF38341111113±6 pp262IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML36.439.310.712.7N/A0.9N/A±0.0 pp46,798Election

Ontario

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Other Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 23, 2021HTML473412242N/A±5 pp309IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML42.444.47.24.11.01.0N/A±0.0 pp53,109Election

Davenport

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 8, 2021PDF4611286325±5.6 pp303IVR

Elgin—Middlesex—London

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 11, 2021PDF32361421015±5.1 pp294IVR

Flamborough—Glanbrook

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 15, 2021PDF3033166707±5.6 pp303IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML36.539.216.56.131.5N/AN/A±0.0 pp62,920Election

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 27, 2021PDF28252652510±5.6 pp305IVR

Kanata—Carleton

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 8, 2021PDF36.332.818.54.51.50.26.2±5 pp297IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML4336.512.56.61.4N/AN/A±0.0 pp66,772Election

King—Vaughan

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 16, 2021PDF48.138.67.41.63.70.20.4±5.6 pp298IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML4543.26.73.91.1N/AN/A±0.0 pp64,446Election

Kitchener Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 18, 2021HTML3427132050N/A±5.9 pp287IVR
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 24, 2021PDF27.823.423.611.91.26.75.5±5.9 pp280IVR
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 5, 2021HTML25.817.911.114.3N/A426.8±4 pp601IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML36.723.811.3261.90.4N/A±0.0 pp55,374Election

Niagara Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 10, 2021PDF35271721018±5 pp301IVR

Oakville

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 30, 2021PDF4039111315±5.5 pp314IVR

Ottawa Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 23, 2021PDF4221285112±5.3 pp344IVR

Parkdale—High Park

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 5, 2021HTML34.514.316.68.8N/A2.923±4 pp600IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML47.413.231.56.41.11.1N/A±0.0 pp60,887Election

Peterborough—Kawartha

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 1, 2021PDF25.837.517.98.63.40.95.9±5.7 pp291IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML39.334.917.17.11.30.5N/A±0.0 pp69,801Election

Spadina—Fort York

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 15, 2021PDF47.518.9123.73.93.910.1±4.1 pp574IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML55.817.620.15.21.11.1N/A±0.0 pp60,887Election

St. Catharines

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 2, 2021PDF3034212437±5.9 pp273IVR

Toronto Centre

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 5, 2021HTML39.98.69.515.5N/A2.324.3±4.1 pp574IVR
2020 By-electionOctober 26, 2020HTML425.71732.71.11.6N/A±0.0 pp25,205Election
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML57.412.122.37.1N/A1.2N/A±0.0 pp54,512Election

Windsor—Tecumseh

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 16, 2021PDF26.818.828.13.516.60.85.5±4.9 pp390IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML33.427.832.33.82.20.3N/A±0.0 pp56,957Election

Prince Edward Island

Malpeque

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 5, 2021HTML36.525.3712.1N/A0.219±5.9 pp280IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML41.425.66.526.5N/A0.4N/A±0.0 pp23,039Election

Quebec

Abitibi—Témiscamingue

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
SOMMarch 29, 2021HTML2595.520N/AN/A635±5.1 pp501IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML25151045.5410N/A±0.0 pp50,155Election

Beauport—Limoilou

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 4, 2021PDF263012192155±5.5 pp313IVR

Berthier—Maskinongé

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 10, 2021PDF16.714.214.135.13.87.41.37.5±5.6 pp308IVR

Châteauguay—Lacolle

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 4, 2021PDF33178276145±5.1 pp370IVR

Jonquière

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 2, 2021PDF24.027.76.624.54.21.52.98.5±5.5 pp314IVR

La Prairie

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 11, 2021PDF31.014.45.440.80.42.42.33.3±5.2 pp355IVR

Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 27, 2021PDF42.45.16.134.14.01.70.36.4±5.6 pp311IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML34.26.38.538.56.11.30.4N/A±0.0 pp59,844Election

Pontiac

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 19, 2021PDF332414924212±4.9 pp398IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML48.916.810.516.16.11.30.4N/A±0.0 pp62,508Election

Rivière-des-Mille-Îles

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 31, 2021PDF29178333325±4.7 pp436IVR

Shefford

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 29, 2021PDF29193315336±5.5 pp322IVR

Thérèse-De Blainville

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 13, 2021PDF38.210.84.640.11.12.80.22.2±6.6 pp221IVR

Trois-Rivières

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Bloc Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 15, 2021PDF28322281017±5 pp300IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML2625.216.728.52.50.90.2N/A±0.0 pp60,538Election

Saskatchewan

Saskatoon West

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]		 Sample
Size[2]		 Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchAugust 25, 2021PDF1928.628.82.45.21.215.5±5.6 pp305IVR
2019 ElectionOctober 21, 2019HTML7.347.740.32.72.0N/AN/A±0.0 pp38,985Election

Notes

Notes

1 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error.[1] In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.[2]
2 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
3 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.

See also

References

  1. ↑ "MRIA Responds to "Evaluating the Polls: An Open Letter to Ontario's Journalists"". Marketing Research and Intelligence Association. September 16, 2011. Archived from the original on February 22, 2012. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
  2. ↑ American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research Archived November 30, 2014, at the Wayback Machine, retrieved October 17, 2012
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