Next United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland

Next United Kingdom general election
(Northern Ireland)
	No later than 28 January 2025
All 18 Northern Ireland seats to the House of Commons

The next United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025, with all 18 Northern Irish seats in the House of Commons to be contested. The general election will occur after the recently completed constituency boundaries review.

Background

Electoral system

MPs will be elected in 18 Single Member constituencies by first-past-the-post.

Date of the election

The next UK general election must occur by January 2025 according to the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act means that the UK House of Commons is dissolved on 17 December 2024, if not already dissolved by the UK Prime Minister. The general election must occur up to 25 working days after dissolution of Parliament (but allows bank holidays).^[1]

Constituency boundaries

In June 2023, it was published that The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland had made final recommendations for the new boundaries for Northern Ireland's 18 parliamentary constituencies. The report was submitted to the speaker of the UK House of Commons and the UK Government is now required to submit a draft of an Order in Council to activate the new boundaries within four months.^[2]

Changes include:

'Belfast South' became 'Belfast South and Mid Down' and expanded to include parts of Lagan Valley and Strangford.
East Antrim, which includes parts of North Antrim.
The Foyle constituency was reduced in size, with areas incorporated into the constituencies of West Tyrone and East Londonderry.^[2]
Strangford has expanded to include large swathes of the eastern side of South Down.

Ten wards were moved and as approved by MPs, the new boundaries became effective on 1 November 2023.^[3]

Campaign

In the run up to the election, there has been speculation to the extent at which unionist electoral pacts will be active in some constituencies.^[4] In July 2023, Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader Doug Beattie clarified that his party intends to stand candidates in 17 constituencies, but there is still speculation about whether the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) will field candidates.^[5]

Since the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election in North Down, where independent unionist Alex Easton topped the poll, there has been calls for unionist parties to drop their own candidates to unite behind Easton to defeat incumbent Alliance MP Stephen Farry.^[6] Farry was confirmed as Alliance's candidate for North Down at the next election on 26 November 2023.^[7]

The Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, in October 2023, revealed that they intend to target Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Jeffrey Donaldson's seat of Lagan Valley. They unveiled their candidate as Sorcha Eastwood and will require a 7.16% swing to gain the seat from the DUP.^[8]

Within nationalism, due to their strong performance in the 2022 Assembly election and the 2023 local elections, Sinn Féin look "likely to increase its number of seats at Westminster", with the possibility of gaining Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) leader Colum Eastwood's seat of Foyle.^[9]

With Sinn Féin on course to gain seats, the DUP will seek to hold their ground such as in the 2023 local elections. The SDLP will seek to hold on to parliamentary representation and Alliance will seek to challenge the DUP in seats such as Belfast East. The UUP will struggle to regain parliamentary representation and their resources will be confined to seats such as Fermanagh and South Tyrone or South Antrim.

A potential campaign issue could be a return to devolved power-sharing government at Stormont, the current deadline for the formation of an Executive is 18 January 2024.

Opinion polling

Pollster/client(s)	Date(s) conducted	Sample size	SF	DUP	Alliance	UUP	SDLP	TUV	Green	NI Con	Other	Undecided	Lead
Pollster/client(s)	Date(s) conducted	Sample size									Other	Undecided	Lead
The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research^[10]	26 October - 3 November 2023	1074	25%	31%	15%	11%	9%	5%	N/A	N/A	N/A	14%	6%
2019 general election	12 Dec 2019	–	30.6%	22.8%	16.8%	11.7%	14.9%	N/A	0.2%	0.7%	3.1%	N/A	7.8%

Leadership approval ratings

Michelle O'Neill

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Michelle O'Neill, Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018 and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample Size	Good/Great	Bad/Awful	Don't know	Net approval
Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample Size				Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	43%	37%	20%	+6%
21–24 Apr 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	41%	37%	22%	+4%
20–23 Jan 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	41%	40%	19%	+4%
4–7 Nov 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	46%	37%	17%	+9%
12–15 Aug 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	40%	42%	18%	–2%

Jeffrey Donaldson

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) since 30 June 2021.

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample Size	Good/Great	Bad/Awful	Don't know	Net approval
Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample Size				Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	24%	66%	10%	–42%
21–24 Apr 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	27%	65%	8%	–38%
20–23 Jan 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	25%	63%	12%	–38%
4–7 Nov 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	29%	65%	6%	–36%
12–15 Aug 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	27%	64%	9%	–37%

Naomi Long

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Naomi Long, leader of the Alliance Party since 26 October 2016.

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample Size	Good/Great	Bad/Awful	Don't know	Net approval
Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample Size				Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	38%	39%	23%	–1%
21–24 Apr 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	40%	38%	22%	+2%
20–23 Jan 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	37%	38%	25%	–1%
4–7 Nov 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	45%	37%	18%	+8%
12–15 Aug 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	46%	37%	17%	+9%

Doug Beattie

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Doug Beattie, leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) since 27 May 2021.

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample Size	Good/Great	Bad/Awful	Don't know	Net approval
Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample Size				Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	34%	38%	28%	–4%
21–24 Apr 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	38%	33%	29%	+5%
20–23 Jan 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	28%	42%	30%	–14%
4–7 Nov 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	37%	32%	31%	+5%
12–15 Aug 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	34%	34%	32%	0%

Colum Eastwood

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Colum Eastwood, leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) since 14 November 2015.

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample Size	Good/Great	Bad/Awful	Don't know	Net approval
Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample Size				Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	26%	43%	31%	–17%
21–24 Apr 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	32%	40%	28%	–8%
20–23 Jan 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	33%	38%	29%	–5%
4–7 Nov 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	31%	39%	30%	–8%
12–15 Aug 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	34%	39%	27%	–5%

Jim Allister

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jim Allister, leader of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) since 7 December 2007.

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample Size	Good/Great	Bad/Awful	Don't know	Net approval
Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample Size				Net approval
11–14 Aug 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	2,950	23%	63%	14%	–40%
21–24 Apr 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,957	27%	61%	12%	–34%
20–23 Jan 2023	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	1,449	27%	57%	16%	–30%
4–7 Nov 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,351	27%	59%	14%	–32%
12–15 Aug 2022	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,384	31%	54%	15%	–23%

References

↑ "When Is The Next UK General Election?". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 4 November 2023.
1 2 Hughes, Brendan (28 June 2023). "Belfast constituency to be renamed under election boundary changes". Belfast Live. Retrieved 5 November 2023.
↑ "Boundaries of five Northern Ireland constituencies to change". BBC News. 28 June 2023. Retrieved 5 November 2023.
↑ Michael Palmer (24 November 2023). "Unionist Pacts: Deal or No Deal?". Slugger O'Toole. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
↑ David McCann (24 November 2023). "Slugger TV talks with Doug Beatte". Slugger O'Toole. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
↑ "North Down Orangemen call for rival unionist parties to drop their own candidates and agree on a single contender in bid to oust Stephen Farry as MP". Yahoo News. 6 October 2023. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
↑ "Alliance select Stephen Farry to stand for re-election in North Down | Northern Ireland Elects". nielects.com. 26 November 2023. Retrieved 27 November 2023.
↑ "Alliance: We can take Jeffrey Donaldson's Lagan Valley seat". BelfastTelegraph.co.uk. 21 October 2023. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
↑ "Sinn Fein 'on course to hit new general election high': new poll". BelfastTelegraph.co.uk. 13 November 2023. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
↑ "Restoring the Assembly?" (PDF).

Footnotes

↑ "Party leader in the North" and vice president of Sinn Féin. Mary Lou McDonald is the party president and leader of the opposition in the Dáil of the Republic of Ireland.
↑ As "Party leader in the North"
↑ O'Neill is a MLA for Mid Ulster.
↑ Long serves as a MLA for Belfast East. She previously represented the area at Westminster from 2010-2015.
↑ Beattie is a MLA for Upper Bann.
↑ Allister is a MLA for North Antrim.

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[7] "When Is The Next UK General Election?". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 4 November 2023.

[:0-8] 1 2 Hughes, Brendan (28 June 2023). "Belfast constituency to be renamed under election boundary changes". Belfast Live. Retrieved 5 November 2023.

[9] "Boundaries of five Northern Ireland constituencies to change". BBC News. 28 June 2023. Retrieved 5 November 2023.

[10] Michael Palmer (24 November 2023). "Unionist Pacts: Deal or No Deal?". Slugger O'Toole. Retrieved 24 November 2023.

[11] David McCann (24 November 2023). "Slugger TV talks with Doug Beatte". Slugger O'Toole. Retrieved 24 November 2023.

[12] "North Down Orangemen call for rival unionist parties to drop their own candidates and agree on a single contender in bid to oust Stephen Farry as MP". Yahoo News. 6 October 2023. Retrieved 24 November 2023.

[13] "Alliance select Stephen Farry to stand for re-election in North Down | Northern Ireland Elects". nielects.com. 26 November 2023. Retrieved 27 November 2023.

[14] "Alliance: We can take Jeffrey Donaldson's Lagan Valley seat". BelfastTelegraph.co.uk. 21 October 2023. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 24 November 2023.

[15] "Sinn Fein 'on course to hit new general election high': new poll". BelfastTelegraph.co.uk. 13 November 2023. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 24 November 2023.

[16] "Restoring the Assembly?" (PDF).

[1] "Party leader in the North" and vice president of Sinn Féin. Mary Lou McDonald is the party president and leader of the opposition in the Dáil of the Republic of Ireland.

[2] As "Party leader in the North"

[3] O'Neill is a MLA for Mid Ulster.

[4] Long serves as a MLA for Belfast East. She previously represented the area at Westminster from 2010-2015.

[5] Beattie is a MLA for Upper Bann.

[6] Allister is a MLA for North Antrim.

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2019 United Kingdom general election
Early Parliamentary General Election Act 2019
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