2024 Azerbaijani presidential election
7 February 2024 (2024-02-07)
 
Ilham Aliyev in 2023.jpg
Zahid Oruj in 2023 (cropped).png
Razi Nurullayev (cropped).png
Nominee Ilham Aliyev Zahid Oruc Razi Nurullayev
Party New Azerbaijan Independent National Front
Incumbent President

Ilham Aliyev
New Azerbaijan


Early presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Azerbaijan on 7 February 2024.[1] Originally set for October 2025, President Ilham Aliyev called for a snap election in December 2023 following the previously successful Azerbaijani offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, which brought an end to the Armenian-led breakaway state Republic of Artsakh and the full accession of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region by Azerbaijan.[2][3] Due to the pretext, the election was unofficially referred as "Victory Election" (Azerbaijani: Zəfər seçkisi) by the officials and press media.[4][5] This will be a third snap election for president in Azerbaijan's history, as well as the first presidential election to be held in winter season.[6]

In accordance with the 2009 referendum, incumbent president Ilham Aliyev is eligible to run for another fifth consecutive term.[7]

The election takes place in an authoritarian context where the opposition and independent media are repressed.[8] The two main opposition parties, Musavat and Popular Front, announced that they would not put up candidates for the election and urged voters to stay home, citing the undemocratic nature of the election.[9][10]

Background

The previous 2018 presidential election was held months ahead of schedule which saw the re-election of long-time authoritarian president Ilham Aliyev, in power since 2003, securing a fourth consecutive term in office after obtaining 86% of the vote. The election was boycotted by the Azerbaijani opposition and criticized for its conduct and early schedule amid allegations of irregularities and electoral fraud.[11][12]

President Aliyev's fourth presidential term was initially embarked by a series of socioeconomic reforms, where he issued decrees addressing burdensome credit loans, providing compensation to the families of military veterans, and increasing student stipends, as well as issuing mass pardons to several political prisoners.[13] He also made an effort attempt at diversifying the oil-dependent Azerbaijani economy.[14] In late 2019, the National Assembly dissolved itself, which triggered the March 2020 parliamentary election, with the move being viewed as Aliyev's possible preparation for an order of succession, where he would eventually hand over presidency to his wife, First Vice President Mehriban Aliyeva, as a way to ensure the Aliyev family's dynastic rule over Azerbaijan.[15] The parliamentary election campaign, initially offering a glimmer of political change,[16] nevertheless saw Aliyev's ruling New Azerbaijan Party retaining a majority of deputy seats.[17] From 2020, Aliyev endured the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in Azerbaijan, where a series of controversial anti-lockdown laws were introduced that allowed for the Azerbaijani government to crackdown on political opposition and silence anti-government critics over the country's response to the pandemic, which Aliyev referred to as a "fifth column" attempting to "destroy Azerbaijan".[18][19][20] The Azerbaijani government also introduced a series of anti-crisis packages that were aimed at relieving the economic impact caused by the coronavirus pandemic,[21] to which the emergency aid was later criticized for allegedly having citizens struggling to obtain it.[22]

Nagorno-Karabakh and the 2023 Azerbaijani offensive

The Nagorno-Karabakh region has served as an epicenter of the decades-long conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Since 1994 much of Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, was de-facto under control by the ethnic Armenian-led breakaway state Republic of Artsakh, with periods of occurring border skirmishes occurring in the 2010s.[23][24] In July 2020, border clashes took place between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces, sparking massive pro-war protests in Azerbaijan which became increasingly grew following the deaths of military officers Polad Hashimov and Ilgar Mirzayev.[25][26][27] The demonstrations in Baku, leading to storming of the Parliament building and clashes with the security forces, had profound impact on Azerbaijan's foreign policy as its believed to have been one of the causing factors that led to the following outbreak of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in September 2020.[28][29][30] The war lasted for approximately 44 days and resulted in an Azerbaijani victory, reclaiming control of the newly-captured territories and Armenian-occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh in the aftermath of November 2020 ceasefire agreement signed by Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia.[31][32]

Post-war stability within Nagorno-Karabakh region was relatively short-lived, as the Armenia–Azerbaijan border crisis began in 2021. From December 2022, Azerbaijan enforced a blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh, sparking a humanitarian crisis in Artsakh as the region grappled with the shortages of medication, food and fuel.[33][34] In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale military offensive into Nagorno-Karabakh which lasted for a day, leading to the immediate surrender of the remaining Artsakhian forces, which effectively ended the existence of the Republic of Artsakh and resulted in the mass exodus of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians.[35][36][37][38][39][40]

Calling for snap election

Article 178 of the Election Code of Azerbaijan stipulates that the presidential election must be held every third Wednesday of October of the last year of the President’s term of office.[41] The 2016 constitutional referendum previously extended the presidential term from five to seven years,[42][43] with Aliyev being subsequently re-elected for a seven-year term in 2018 following the amendments to the Constitution of Azerbaijan, thus making the presidential election originally set to take place on 15 October 2025.[44][45]

Article 101 §1 of the Constitution of Azerbaijan allows for the President to legally call a snap election.[41] In accordance with Article 179 §2 of the Election Code of Azerbaijan, the date of the presidential elections shall be determined within a week of the call by the Central Election Commission (CEC). The election must be on a Wednesday and be conducted within a 3 month period after the date determination by the CEC.[41] On 7 December 2023, President Ilham Aliyev signed a decree in setting Wednesday, 7 February 2024, as a date for an early presidential election to be held.[46][47] In addition, the election day in Azerbaijan would be a public holiday.[47]

Given without the official explanation for Aliyev's decision, it was speculated by Dr. Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan during an interview with Azernews that the original election date for autumn 2025 would have coincided with the already scheduled parliamentary elections for that same timeframe, which might could have potentially caused "a bit of distress" among Azerbaijani voters and that a snap election for president in February 2024 would look "more convenient from a time perspective."[48] Other analysts suggested the reasoning factor behind an early presidential election was due to Aliyev's attempt to take advantage of his high popularity following Azerbaijani's successful seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh.[49] The timing of election was also noted by Associated Press to have coincided ahead of the 2024 Russian presidential election, for which the alleged reason was due to attempts by Aliyev to minimize Russia's influence on the Azerbaijani election.[50] Opposition leader Ali Karimli assessed that that a snap presidential election indicated Aliyev's desire to hold polls "in isolation from the democratic world" and fear of a change in the current "minimal political competition", where he speculated that Aliyev wanted to secure another seven-year presidential term before a potential Russian defeat in the Russo-Ukrainian War which could according to his theory "upend the regional geopolitical situation to authoritarians' disfavor."[51] Musavat party chairman Arif Hajili criticized the announcement of a snap presidential election, stating that holding an early vote hinders political competition and that it is problematic for the election campaign.[52] In a following subsequent statement, the Musavat party claimed that the election date in winter will lead to a low voter turnout, accusing Azerbaijani authorities of turning the presidential election into "a formal procedure".[53]

Electoral system

The President of Azerbaijan is elected for a seven-year term from universal, direct and equal suffrage with a personal and secret ballot. Using the two-round system; if no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the first round, a run-off vote is held between the top two candidates who garnered the most votes in the first round.[54] Under a case of the war, the presidential term must be extended until the end of military operation, for which the decision on this matter must be adopted by the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Azerbaijan on the basis of the application of the state body organizing elections (referendum).[54]

Timetable

The Central Election Commission (CEC) on 9 December 2023 approved the official calendar plan for the 2024 election as follows.[55]

Key Dates
Date Event
9 December 2023 Nomination process of candidates begin.
19 December 2023 – 8 January 2024, 18:00 UTC+4 Collecting signatures in support of presidential nominees.
15 January–6 February 2024, 08:00 UTC+4 Pre-election campaigning.
28 January 2024 Deadline for the accreditation of election observers.
2 February 2024 Deadline for the submission of applications for election observation in the premises of electoral precinct to the district election commission.
7 February 2024 Election day, voting held from 08:00 to 19:00 UTC+4.
Evening, 7 February 2024 Publication of the information about the election results in the protocols of precinct and district election commissions.
By 19:00 UTC+4, 8 February 2024 Precinct election commissions submit the first copies of the protocols on the results of the elections to the district election commissions.
9 February 2024 Deadline for district election commissions requiring to submit the first copies of protocols on the results of voting in the district to the CEC, for which after all protocols received from the districts the CEC must immediately announce the primary generalized election results.
17 February 2024 Deadline for the Constitutional Court verifies and approves the election results.

Candidates

A citizen of the Republic of Azerbaijan, who has lived permanently in the territory of the Azerbaijan for more than 10 years, has the right to participate in elections, has not been convicted of a serious crime, has no obligations to other states, has a higher education, and does not have dual citizenship can be elected as President.[41]

Registered

Candidate name and age,
political party		 Political office(s) Details Registration date
Ilham Aliyev
(62)
New Azerbaijan Party		 President of Azerbaijan
(2003–present)
Chairman of the New Azerbaijan Party
(2005–present)
Prime Minister of Azerbaijan
(2003)		 The New Azerbaijan Party submitted the documents on the presidential nomination of Ilham Aliyev to the CEC on 17 December 2023.[56] After the meeting of the CEC held on 19 December, the secretary of the commission, Arifa Mukhtarova, announced the registration of Aliyev's candidature.[57][58][59] 19 December 2023[60]
Zahid Oruj
(52)
Independent		 Member of the National Assembly
(2003–present)		 Zahid Oruj, a pro-Aliyev member of parliament.[61][62] He was a presidential candidate previously in the 2018 and 2013 elections, gave an interview in support of Ilham Aliyev on 8 December 2023.[63] Despite this, he later announced his bid to participate in the election and applied his presidential candidacy to the CEC on 17 December.[64] 21 December 2023[65]
Fazil Mustafa
(58)
Great Order Party		 Member of the National Assembly for the 26th Sabunchu constituency
(2005–present)		 On 17 December 2023, the documents on Mustafa's nomination by the Great Order Party in the election were submitted to the CEC.[66] 21 December 2023[67]
Fuad Aliyev
(53)
Liberal Democratic Party of Azerbaijan		 Chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party of Azerbaijan
(2001–2023)		 Fuad Aliyev was a candidate in the 2008 presidential elections. 21 December 2023[68]
Elşad Musayev
(60)
Great Azerbaijan Party		 Chairman of the Great Azerbaijan Party
(2003–present)		 Elşad Musayev, chairman of the Great Azerbaijan Party (GAP) which was re-registered in 2023, previously ran in the 2003 presidential election. 21 December 2023[69]

Nominations

After the meeting of the Central Election Commission (CEC) held on 8 December 2023, in a statement made by the secretary of the CEC, Arife Muhtarova, candidates willing to participate in the 2024 presidential election must submit the necessary documents to the commission starting from 10 December. She noted that the acceptance of documents should continue until 8 January 2024, and the propaganda work should continue until 6 February 2024 at 18:00. In order to participate as an observer, citizens should apply to the commission by 28 January 2024.[70]

New Azerbaijan Party

On 12 December 2023, deputy chairman of New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) and chairman of the YAP central office, Tahir Budaqov, confirmed that Ilham Aliyev would be the presidential nominee for YAP, noting that the final decision will be made at the meeting of the party's board of directors, as the nomination of candidates is made under the authority of the board of directors in accordance with the decision taken at the previous YAP congress.[71]

At the meeting of the YAP board of directors on 15 December 2023, Aliyev was officially nominated for presidency under the party's decision.[72] In addition, Tahir Budagov, deputy chairman of YAP – head of the central office and Ali Ahmadov, deputy chairman of YAP, were appointed as authorized party representatives for the election with Ahliman Taghiyev, deputy head of the central office, being appointed as authorized representative for financial issues.[73]

Great Order Party

According to the decision taken at the meeting of the supreme assembly of the Great Order Party (BQP) on 16 December 2023, party chairman Fazil Mustafa, candidate in the 2008 election, was nominated for the presidency by the BQP.[74]

Great Azerbaijan Party

On 17 December 2023, the decision of the political council of the Great Azerbaijan Party (BAP) regarding the elections was announced to the press. Thus, the BAP nominated party chairman Elşad Musayev as a presidential candidate for the elections.[75]

On 18 December 2023, Gudrat Hasanguliyev, the chairman of the Whole Azerbaijan Popular Front Party (BAXCP), who was a candidate for the presidency in the 2003 elections, received presidential nomination by BAXCP.

Independents

Zahid Oruj
On 16 December 2023, Zahid Oruj, who ran in the 2018 and 2013 presidential elections announced his interest to take part in the 2024 election as an independent candidate.[76]

Fuad Aliyev
Fuad Aliyev, the chairman of the former Liberal Democratic Party of Azerbaijan and the chairman of the Public Union for the Protection of Civil Rights, nominated himself for presidency on 18 December 2023.[77] Those who support him established the "Citizen Union" Election Headquarters which was chaired by Khazar Teyyublu.[78]

Endorsements

Ilham Aliyev
Individuals
Political parties
International and local organizations

Campaign

Gudrat Hasanguliyev

On 21 December 2023, presidential candidate Gudrat Hasanguliyev (Whole Azerbaijan Popular Front Party) announced several provisions from his pre-election campaign platform to the press. If elected as president, Hasanguliyev pledged to change Azerbaijan's official name to the "Northern Azerbaijan Republic" via constitutional referendum, combine the state bodies of the Minister of Justice and the Prosecutor General into the State Investigative Committee, divide the country into 15 administrative units and establish 31-member assemblies which will be formed by the votes of the residents of those administrative units, increasing workers' salaries, reduce the Azerbaijani military service period to 6 months, and introduce a cash payment system for exemption from premiums, as well as establish "child allowance" payments.[104]

Razi Nurullayev

Presidential candidate Razi Nurullayev for the National Front Party emphasized that his party's ideology is social democracy, thus describing himself as a "social democratic politician", outlying that his election program is mainly related to the issue of social security.[105]

Observation

On 29 December 2023, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that it had sent invitations to the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Organization of Turkic States, Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Non-Aligned Movement Youth Organization, and the GUAM Organization for Democracy and Economic Development to observe elections.[106]

Secretary General of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Sergey Lebedev, announced plans on 13 December 2023 in sending CIS election observers to Azerbaijan.[107]

A long-term mission of the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) under the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) consisting of 26 people will observe the 2024 presidential election. The institution has sent a request to the OSCE participating countries regarding the provision of a short-term observation mission consisting of 250 people, with Eoghan Murphy being appointed as the head of the observation mission.[108]

The Dilara Aliyeva Protection of Women's Rights Public Union chaired by Novella Jafaroglu, the Human Rights and Rule of Law Protection Public Union chaired by Saida Gojamanli, and the Azerbaijani branch of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights chaired by Saadat Bananyarli established the "My Voice" Election Monitoring Coalition to monitor the polls.[109]

Conduct

A meeting of the Central Election Commission (CEC) was held on 8 December 2023, where the decision in holding a snap election was approved with a working group being established and CEC member Etibar Guliyev being appointed as the chairman of the group.

Electoral precincts

According to the information provided by the CEC on 19 September 2023, electoral districts in Azerbaijan were reorganized whilst taking into account the norm of voter representation.[110][111]

With the Azerbaijani takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh from the Republic of Artsakh, the 2024 election would be held in all of Azerbaijan's recognized territory the first time,[112] with 20,000 voters taking part in the vote in the polling stations in the previously-occupied Nagorno-Karabakh territories.[113] During the CEC meeting on 16 December 2023, chairman Mazahir Panahov announced that the election will be held in the liberated city of Khankendi for the first, and that a newly-formed polling station will be located in the administrative building of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Province Committee of the Communist Party of Azerbaijan.[114][115] According to the information provided, 26 polling stations will be created in 9 constituencies covering the regions of Nagorno-Karabakh liberated by Azerbaijan.[116]

Funding

Approximately 110.9 million manats (0.3%) from the Azerbaijani government budget have been allocated for the expenses of holding elections and statistical measures, as stated in the Law "On the 2024 State Budget of the Republic of Azerbaijan".[117]

Voter listing

On 16 December 2023, CEC chairman Mazahir Panahov noted that a new electoral roll system was drawn up, that in case if a voter passed away on election day, then it would be reported in the voter listing, to which the project was prepared with the cooperation of the Ministry of Justice.[118] In addition, he also announced any voter who turned out in the polls for the first time and media organizations reporting from here will be rewarded.[119]

The CEC held a meeting on 20 December 2023, after which chairman Panahov made statements to the press revealing the number of registered voters for the 2024 presidential election numbering to approximately 6,254,556 people.[120]

The elections also coincided with the vacation break of the universities, and in this regard, Panahov requested the information list of university students from the Ministry of Science and Education in regard to their voter registration status and unveiled plan to create certain conditions for students to vote depending on their primary residence.[121]

The CEC alongside with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs worked on assisting Azerbaijani citizens to vote overseas, with Panahov encouraging voters to register in the closest Azerbaijan's diplomatic missions.[121]

References

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  77. ↑ "QHT sədri prezidentliyə namizədliyini irəli sürdü". modern.az (in Azerbaijani). 18 December 2023. Retrieved 21 December 2023.
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