on the bubble

US, late 20th century, from Indiana motor racing.

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on the bubble

1. (motor racing) Holding the last qualifying position with qualification still in progress, and thus liable to lose that position.

   Smith was on the bubble but lost out when Jones was faster by a tenth of a second.

2. (sports) Having qualification for an event depend on the upcoming performances of other competitors; hence, at risk of being eliminated, and reversely, being close to qualification; on the verge.
   • 2006, Dan Harrington, Bill Robertie, Harrington on Hold 'Em::

     Most players play pretty loose on the bubble, much looser than they theoretically should, and even if I saw an opponent sitting out a few hands, it's more likely that he just hit a run of low cards than that he turned into a locksmith at this stage.

   • 2009, Dick Couch, The Warrior Elite: The Forging of SEAL Class, page 228:

     Lewis and Marc Luttrell are on the bubble because they have yet to make the timed run in Third Phase, but they make this one.

   The Knights had been on the bubble for the tournament, but played their way in by winning their last five games.

3. (idiomatic) Uncertain of success.

   The new bond issue now appears to be on the bubble, with support eroding.

4. Used other than figuratively or idiomatically: see on,‎ bubble.
   • 2004, David D. Moon, Carbon Dating, Cold Fusion, and a Curve Ball, page 109:

     Among other aspects of bubble measurement, the researchers were interested in measuring the size of the bubble with a laser scattering technique. A laser is shone on the bubble, which scatters the light.

• bubble team
• bubble under

• pole position
• qualifiers
• qualifying