The Conference Board Leading Economic Index is an American economic leading indicator intended to forecast future economic activity. It is calculated by The Conference Board, a non-governmental organization, which determines the value of the index from the values of ten key variables. These variables have historically turned downward before a recession and upward before an expansion. The per cent change year over year of the Leading Economic Index is a lagging indicator of the market directions.[1]

A Federal Reserve Bank of New York report What Predicts U.S. Recessions? uses each component of the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index. That report said that the indicators signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle, and the aggregate index has been shown to drop ahead of recessions and rise before expansions.[2]

Revisions to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index effective with the January 26, 2012 release began using the new Leading Credit Index ... etc.[3]

See also

References

  1. A Closer Look at the Conference Board Leading Economic Index | Andrew Kitchings, CAIA, ERP, FRM | Commonwealth Financial Network® | Aug 22, 2018
  2. What Predicts U.S. Recessions? Federal Reserve Bank of New York | Staff Reports | What Predicts U.S. Recessions? | Weiling Liu and Emanuel Moench | Staff Report No. 691 | September 2014
  3. Calculating the Composite Indexes
  4. "Using a Leading Credit Index to Predict Turning Points in the U.S. Business Cycle". www.conference-board.org. December 2011. Retrieved 17 August 2023.


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