Next German federal election
Germany
By 26 October 2025

All 630 seats in the Bundestag
316 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeader Current seats
SPD Olaf Scholz[lower-alpha 1] 207
CDU/CSU Friedrich Merz 197
Greens Ricarda Lang
Omid Nouripour
118
FDP Christian Lindner 92
AfD Alice Weidel
Tino Chrupalla
78
Ungrouped N/A 44
Incumbent Government
Scholz cabinet
SPDGreenFDP

The next German federal election will be held no later than 26 October 2025 to elect the members of the 21st Bundestag.

Date

The Basic Law and the Federal Election Act provide that federal elections must be held on a Sunday or on a national holiday[lower-alpha 2] no earlier than 46 and no later than 48 months after the first sitting of a Bundestag, unless the Bundestag is dissolved earlier. The 20th and sitting Bundestag held its first sitting on 26 October 2021.[1] Therefore, the next election has to take place on one of the following possible dates:

  • 31 August 2025 (Sunday)
  • 7 September 2025 (Sunday)
  • 14 September 2025 (Sunday)
  • 21 September 2025 (Sunday)
  • 28 September 2025 (Sunday)
  • 3 October 2025 (German Unity Day)
  • 5 October 2025 (Sunday)
  • 12 October 2025 (Sunday)
  • 19 October 2025 (Sunday)
  • 26 October 2025 (Sunday)

The exact date will be determined by the president of Germany in due course.[2] Federal elections can be held earlier if the president of Germany dissolves the Bundestag and schedules a snap election. They may only do so under two possible scenarios described by the Basic Law.

  1. If the Bundestag fails to elect a Chancellor with an absolute majority of its members on the 15th day after the first ballot of a Chancellor's election, the president is free to either appoint the candidate who received a plurality of votes as Chancellor or to dissolve the Bundestag (in accordance with Article 63, Section 4 of the Basic Law).
  2. If the Chancellor loses a confidence motion, they may ask the president to dissolve the Bundestag. The president is free to grant or to deny the Chancellor's request (in accordance with Article 68 of the Basic Law).

In both cases, federal elections would have to take place on a Sunday or national holiday no later than 60 days after the dissolution.[3][4][lower-alpha 3] Under both scenarios, a snap election is not possible during a state of defence. Federal elections can also be held later, if a state of defence is declared. If a state of defence prohibits a scheduled federal election and prolongs a legislative period, new elections have to take place no later than six months after the end of the state of defence.

Changes to electoral system

After the 2021 German federal election produced a Bundestag with 736 members – which made it the largest freely elected parliament in the world – renewed debate began over the system of awarding overhang and leveling seats in place since the 2013 election. The Scholz cabinet passed a reform law in March 2023 to fix the size of future Bundestags at 630 members. This is achieved by eliminating all overhang and leveling seats, as well as the constituency seat rule (Grundmandatsklausel) which awards full proportional representation to parties winning at least three constituency seats, even if they do not meet the five-percent threshold. Under the new legislation, a party's total number of seats will be determined solely by its share of party-list votes (Zweitstimmen). If a party wins more constituency seats in a state than it is proportionally entitled to in that state, it will only be awarded the amount of constituency seats it is proportionally entitled to; a number of its constituency winners would be excluded from the Bundestag, in order of those that received the smallest vote shares. Parties representing minority groups are still exempt from the five-percent threshold.

The law is subject to constitutional challenges; the CSU and The Left, both of whom benefitted from the previous system at the 2021 election, appealed to President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to refuse to sign it, though he did so after personally determining he believed it was constitutional.[5][6] Immediately after the law was promulgated in the Federal Law Journal on 13 June, both party organizations, as well as the government of Bavaria controlled by the CSU, filed formal complaints to the Federal Constitutional Court.[7][8]

Political parties and leaders

The table below lists the parties represented in the 20th Bundestag.

Parties Leader(s) Leading candidate(s) Ideology Seats Status
Last election Before election
Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Saskia Esken
Lars Klingbeil
Olaf Scholz Social democracy
206 / 736
207 / 736
Governing coalition
Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Friedrich Merz Christian democracy
197 / 736
197 / 736
Opposition
Christian Social Union in Bavaria
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Markus Söder
Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Ricarda Lang
Omid Nouripour
Green politics
118 / 736
118 / 736
Governing coalition
Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei
Christian Lindner Classical liberalism
92 / 736
92 / 736
Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
Alice Weidel
Tino Chrupalla
Right-wing populism
83 / 736
78 / 736
Opposition
Ungrouped The Left
Die Linke
Janine Wissler
Martin Schirdewan
Democratic socialism
39 / 736
28 / 736
BSW Sahra Wagenknecht
Amira Mohamed Ali
Left-wing populism
0 / 736
10 / 736
SSW Christian Dirschauer Minority rights
1 / 736
1 / 736
AfD
0 / 736
1 / 736
Independent
0 / 736
4 / 736

Opinion polls

Local regression of polls conducted

Notes

  1. Scholz is the incumbent Chancellor of Germany. The SPD's co-leaders are Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil.
  2. In Germany, with the exception of the German Unity Day, all holidays are determined on the state level, and because of that, they do not necessarily apply for all German states. Currently, legal holidays in all states are New Year's Day, Good Friday, Easter Monday, Labour Day, Ascension Day, Whit Monday, German Unity Day, First Christmas Day, and Second Christmas Day (Boxing Day).
  3. Possibility 1 has never yet happened since 1949; possibility 2 has been used a total of three times (in 1972, 1982, and 2005).

References

  1. "Nach der Bundestagswahl: Wie geht es jetzt weiter?" [After the general election: what's next]. RND (in German). 26 September 2021. Retrieved 30 September 2021.
  2. "§ 16 BWahlG – Einzelnorm". gesetze-im-internet.de. Archived from the original on 17 November 2020. Retrieved 24 April 2019.
  3. "Wahl zum 19. Deutschen Bundestag am 24. September 2017". Der Bundeswahlleiter. Archived from the original on 8 November 2020. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
  4. Martin Fehndrich (26 February 2017). "Bundeskanzlerwahl". Wahlrecht.de. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
  5. "Steinmeier unterzeichnet Gesetz zur Wahlrechtsreform". Süddeutsche Zeitung (in German). 8 June 2023.
  6. Kornmeier, Claudia (17 March 2023). "Was das neue Wahlrecht vorsieht". tagesschau.de (in German).
  7. "Wahlrechtsreform: CSU und Freistaat Bayern klagen beim Bundesverfassungsgericht". Der Spiegel (in German). 14 June 2023.
  8. Lehmann, Anna (16 June 2023). "Verkleinerung des Bundestages: Linke klagt gegen Wahlrechtsreform". Die Tageszeitung (in German).
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