2016 Ohio Republican presidential primary

March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15)
 
Candidate John Kasich Donald Trump Ted Cruz
Home state Ohio New York Texas
Delegate count 66 0 0
Popular vote 933,886 713,404 264,640
Percentage 46.95% 35.87% 13.31%

Ohio results by county.
  John Kasich
  Donald Trump

The 2016 Ohio Republican presidential primary took place March 15 in the U.S. state of Ohio, as a part of the Republican Party's series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. The Ohio primary was held alongside Republican primary elections in Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, along with the Democratic contest in Ohio.

The primary was won by the state's then governor, John Kasich.

Background

In the 2012 Republican primary elections, the Ohio primary was a winner-take-most primary scheduled for March 6.[1] However, the state's winner, Mitt Romney, reached only 37% of the vote and thus won only 58% of the state's delegates. House Bill 153, signed by Governor Kasich, moved the primary to March 15 for the 2016 contest, in what would be dubbed a second Super Tuesday by several news networks.[2] In addition, in mid-September, Ohio's Republican Party decided to make the state's 66 delegates completely winner-take-all, in order to maximize the state's power on the nominating convention and to avoid a similar problem to what happened in 2012. This was also expected to help John Kasich, as the state's governor.[3]

The state of the campaign

Previous contests

Despite an early victory by Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump was seen as making steady progress towards the Republican nomination at the time. Trump was victorious in 7 of the contests on March 1, with Cruz seen as the only viable threat to Trump after victories in his home state of Texas and 3 other March 1 contests. Marco Rubio performed worse than anticipated on March 1, taking only Minnesota. On March 8, two primaries and a caucus were held in Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi. Despite a poll from American Research Group that showed Kasich leading Trump in Michigan, Trump won all three contests.[4][5]

Run-up to the election

The opinion polls during early March showed a narrow lead for Trump over Governor Kasich. These polls found approximately 10% support for Marco Rubio, in a distant fourth place. Seeing that many Rubio voters also preferred Governor Kasich as "establishment" voters, Rubio's communications director encouraged Rubio voters to vote for Kasich on March 11.[21] The strategy seemed to work, as Kasich drew narrowly ahead in the polls immediately before the election.[22] Kasich was seen as a slight favorite to take the state immediately before the primary.[23]

Results

Ohio Republican primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
John Kasich 933,886 46.95% 66 0 66
Donald Trump 713,404 35.87% 0 0 0
Ted Cruz 264,640 13.31% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio 46,478 2.34% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 14,351 0.72% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 5,398 0.27% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 4,941 0.25% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 2,430 0.12% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 2,112 0.11% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 1,320 0.07% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,988,960 100.00% 66 0 66
Source: The Green Papers

Marco Rubio suspended his campaign after March 15's contests, although this was more based on a poor Florida primary as opposed to the Ohio contest.[24]

References

  1. "Ohio Republican Delegation 2012". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  2. "Super Tuesday II: Clinton sweeps Florida, Illinois, Ohio and North Carolina; Rubio quits after Trump wins Florida". Washington Post. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  3. "Ohio GOP sets presidential primary as a winner-take-all event, a move that could boost John Kasich". cleveland.com. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  4. "Michigan Republican Presidential Primary". americanresearchgroup.com. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  5. "Trump wins in Hawaii, Mississippi and Michigan". Washington Post. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  6. "2016 Ohio Republican Presidential Primary". American Research Group. Retrieved March 15, 2016.
  7. "OHIO: KASICH, TRUMP IN GOP SQUEAKER; CLINTON LEADS IN DEM RACE" (PDF). Monmouth University Polling Institute. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 14, 2016. Retrieved March 15, 2016.
  8. "TRUMP TOPS RUBIO IN FLORIDA, TIES KASICH IN OHIO, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; CLINTON LEADS SANDERS IN TWO CRITICAL PRIMARIES" (PDF). Quinnipiac University. Retrieved March 14, 2016.
  9. "Poll: Trump and Kasich neck-and-neck in Ohio; Trump leads in Florida". YouGov. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  10. "Polls: Trump Ahead in Florida, Illinois; Kasich Leads in Ohio". NBC News. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  11. "Fox News Poll: Kasich ahead in Ohio". Fox News. Retrieved March 10, 2016.
  12. "TRUMP BURIES RUBIO 2-1 IN FLORIDA GOP PRIMARY, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; KASICH TRYING TO CATCH TRUMP IN OHIO" (PDF). Quinnipiac University. Retrieved March 10, 2016.
  13. "Trump, Kasich in Tight Ohio Race" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
  14. Bradner, Eric (March 9, 2016). "CNN/ORC Poll: Trump, Clinton leading in Florida, Ohio". CNN. Retrieved March 9, 2016.
  15. "Quinnipiac University Poll" (PDF). Retrieved February 26, 2016.
  16. "Topline Report: Ohio Election Poll" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on February 28, 2016. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
  17. "Quinnipiac University Poll" (PDF). Retrieved January 7, 2016.
  18. "Quinnipiac University Poll" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on August 20, 2015. Retrieved January 7, 2015.
  19. "Quinnipiac University Poll" (PDF). Retrieved January 7, 2015.
  20. "Public Policy Polling" (PDF). Retrieved January 7, 2015.
  21. Tal Kopan, Julia Manchester and MJ Lee. "Best chance to stop Trump in Ohio is Kasich, Rubio adviser says". CNN. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  22. "ARG (3/12-3/13 2016)". The Huffington Post. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  23. "What's At Stake For Republicans In The March 15 Primaries". FiveThirtyEight. March 14, 2016. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  24. "Rubio suspends presidential campaign". POLITICO. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
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